User:PaxEquilibrium/Poll

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The Serbo-Croat peoples have tried to live in a common state. They failed twice. This led to numerous controversies and problems that appear to be unsolvable, the shame of Europa. If you (yes, YOU) have an idea of a solution to this puzzle, please write below. If you don't think that you're a masterful genius or God speaking in the names of millions of people, just simply have your say - heck, I wanna (as a victim of the very same controversies) hear you out. You don't have to e brief, but try to MAKE a point, or at least say something that may at least lead to one. Any posts are welcome and they will be thoroughly read (promise!). Sincerely, --PaxEquilibrium 00:36, 6 November 2006 (UTC)

Contents

[edit] The Balkan Question

I am not a God and I can tell you all just my own oppinion. I think it is all about power. It is always about some politician's hunger for money and lust of power. All of them wants to be the king, the emperor, the leader of the superior nation. A ruler of a nation which is not realy exist. Is any nation superior? Is there a person from the human race who can govern the whole World? I think the answer for these questions is NO. Unfortunatly the race for false title the Leader Of The Most Superior race exists. It is an existing competition for an non-existing award. Isn't it funny? But it is all about it. Some people thought that there was a South Slav nation who could govern all others. But these people originaly wouldn't have think these if some polititicians hadn't said it to them in hate speeches. There are some people who lives in somekind of an ideal romantic world. A world where they are the superior ones, they are the member of an superior group. The race is steal continouing and unfortunatly it is unstopable. The race which will bring all of us to death. HunTheGoaT 17:42, 6 November 2006 (UTC)

That's nice - but I wanted to hear also if there is a solution to the Balkan Question. --PaxEquilibrium 19:30, 6 November 2006 (UTC)

[edit] Solution by NikoSilver

HunTheGoat is right! All politicians (note: I didn't say 'all nations') try to maximize their power and their dominion! Indeed, the best solution would be a world with ONE government, but that's hardly the way to achieve it, and those politicians in particular are hardly fit for the job! So the solution is we break the whole thing down to infinite units. Like the Kingdom of Lovely for instance! But not in way so as to create anarchy; rather, in a way so that we can join those units to that imaginary one government world. Because if you ask all those little pieces, they'll all tell you the same two things: nationalism sucks and we want peace!! •NikoSilver• 21:03, 6 November 2006 (UTC)

Can't disagree. However, that utopia which you defined is impossible - hence I'm seeing in front of my eyes that there is no solution. --PaxEquilibrium 16:22, 7 November 2006 (UTC)
Sorry for not being able to do anything more than to try to amuse you. The question is, had there been a solution in the first place, would they have applied it? •NikoSilver• 22:46, 12 November 2006 (UTC)
Good question... --PaxEquilibrium 19:35, 13 November 2006 (UTC)

[edit] It is solved already :))

You want a "solution of the Balkan puzzle"? Well, guess what? You already watch it with your own eyes. :) Check this: http://www.euratlas.com/big/big1800.htm You see a map that show the dark times of the Balkans when most of the peoples of the Balkans were slaves of two foreign empires - "the sickness from Bosphorus" and the "dungeon of nations". And, as you can see, absolutelly all of these peoples of the Balkans are today free and independent: http://www.euratlas.com/big/big2000.htm So the puzzle is solved, at least 90% of it. The rest 10% will be solved in the next 200-300 years too, one way or another (some territories will gain independence and some other will not have any more a population that want independence). PANONIAN (talk) 21:18, 6 November 2006 (UTC)

Are you saying that the relations between Serbs, Croats, Bosniacs and Montenegrins are the sameas those between the Americans and Canadians? Are you saying that there's no Kosovo issue (Albanians and Serbs work perfectly together?), that the three Nations of Bosnia and Herzegovina live in perfect harmony, that there is no problem of Serbs in Croatia, not to mention the bizzare situation of Montenegro. What about smaller problems, like Vojvodina and its Hungarian Question? This lasts for more than a full century... and frankly, I think that 10% is solved and 90% isn't. --PaxEquilibrium 22:24, 6 November 2006 (UTC)
I am saying that you should compare the two maps that I showed to you, so you will see that 90% of puzzle is solved. Rest 10% is not yet solved only because borders are not perfect. But, despite of this, most members of every Balkan nation live in their own independent country. The problems that remained are smaller numbers of members of some nations that do not live in their own countries, but as I said, these problems will be solved in next 200-300 years, and if you want concrete things: Kosovo, Republika Srpska and Illyrida will almost certainly become independent in some point of time. However, I cannot say same thing for Croats of Bosnia, Hungarians of Vojvodina and Transylvania, Turks of Bulgaria or Bosniaks of Sandžak. PANONIAN (talk) 23:00, 6 November 2006 (UTC)
Precisely... 200-300 years. That's what I was aiming at. Sadly, 20-30 years don't seem to pass without a conflict in the Balkans - so I think that it's impossible. Anyway - Germany is the pride of Europe, and only a just a little over half a century had passed since the Nazy Germany - one of the most vile creations of mankind. --PaxEquilibrium 08:25, 7 November 2006 (UTC)

Hi. I happened to notice this page and the discussion attracted my attention. IMHO, the Balkan puzzle has not been solved not even by 10%... What we are experiencing at the moment is Balkanization, a pure re-vitalation of the wellknown ancient Roman saying divide et impera... And the problems, if things won't drastically change, will not be solved not even in 3 centuries' time.... Some of the problems in the Balkans I can think of are the following (comment beneath each one of them, if u wish):

1. Bosnia: does anyone believe that this state can exist for long? those people were killing each other a decade ago, and now the Serbs of the federal rep. are not allowed the right given by the int. community to Montenegro and Kosovo... Maybe 3 states will be created, or else a small muslim one, with the Serb and Croat regions been incorporated to Serbia and Croatia respectively.
Well, problem is simple - the three nations cannot live together simply, but territorial disunity of BH is surely not a possible option. The main problem is that the Serbs want full-scale independence - and the centrists carefully keep Brčko, the territory that spits the Serb Bosnia-Herzegovina in half... so that kind of a country wouldn't function. Essentially, over 90% of the Serbian Republic's population desire independence.. The Serb Republic is constitutionally a part of Bosnia and Herzegovina and it's secession is lawfully, impossible - and considering the unique geographical position of Bosnia, essentially unimaginable. A very high inflammation of nationalism (to the extent of joining Serbia) in this political entity is present as well - this does not make the situation any better. And even aside all this, a great pressure is put on the Republic of the Serbian People of Bosnia-Herzegovina by imposing centralism and generally nearing it to the Bosnian-Herzegovinian Federation.
In the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, the Croats seem to be supporting the general Bosniac view of a centralist state - but the rising opinion (in the wake of slow political motion) announces a third Bosnian entity. The main issue is that, although the Federation is supposed to show equality, the Bosniacs, the most numerous nation, dominate the entity with 80% of its population belonging to this ethnic group, whereas the remainder are only partially Croats (there are Serbs too). The Croats fear of simply vanishing from the face of the earth, as a highly jeopardized nation of Bosnia and Herzegovina and they need the same status as the other two peoples, but they would do nice with an ethnic stabilization by introducing a large number of Serbs (unitarian order). The most rightist of the Herzeg-Bosnian Croats demand closer as possible ties with their nation-motherland, Croatia. The small number of Serbs living in the Bosnian Federation are subject to heaviest discrimination.
The Bosniacs. as they are in relative majority in the country, strictly demand a united infrastructure, in which they would be the number 1 people and to include the greater part of their nation in one state (the good old "Greater" erratic ideology) and under the cloak of equality and national unity hide a very fervent nationalistic feeling towards Croats, and especially Serbs (but weirdly, a very strong state hatred towards two countries: Serbia and Montenegro). It is worth mentioning as well, that BH does not recognize humans that don't belong to either of its three nations as the citizens of their country, and what's more astonishing, a handful of the Bosnian populace declare to be Moslem, by nationality; however the government does not recognize this, and simply puts them under Bosniacs. Finally, the fact that just little over a decade ago a brutal ethnic and religious war was fought in Bosnia. --PaxEquilibrium 16:16, 7 November 2006 (UTC).
2. Serbia: Montenegro left... Kosovo will soon leave... What will be next? Voivodina? Sanjak? or maybe Presevo? What the hell happened in Serbia? Maybe the Hungarians will ask for further autonomy in Voivodina and the Bosniaks in Sanjak. Maybe the Bulgarians will again look forward the Torlakian speakers in SE Serbia. Maybe the Romanians ask a bit of Serbian Banat, the Albanians, after the independance of Kosovo may look forward Presevo as well, and maybe the people of FYROM will ask for these small parts of Kosovo and Serbia that geographically belong to the region of Macedonia.
Montenegro wasn't a part of Serbia, so it shouldn't be mentioned. There are ongoing disputes over Kosovo - it may not be independent after all. The problem is that there is no legal, or from the side of Law, possible way for the territory of Kosovo to secede from Serbia (although the fact that Serbia has no real governing powers helps this issue), however over 80% of its, mostly ethnically Albanian population, will accept nothing but independence and have a strong nationalistic POV of an ethnically pure Kosovo and union with Albania, whereas the 10% Serbs also have an extremely nationalistic view and will never accept truce with the Albanians. The Kosovo Serb enclaves are practically under siege, and North Kosovo is a secessionist part that is in no way a part of the rest of Kosovo... not to mention the non-Albanian refugees... We must not forget the terrible long years of horror that Kosovo endures.
Vojvodina already has an autonomist movement (based on the prospect of a multi-ethnic utopia and very large historical richness) that constantly maintains to increase its political status within Serbia, but a very strong number of Serbs within the Autonomous Province prevents anything of larger scale. There were talks about Sanjak's autonomy for its Islamic populace long before, escalating even with a referendum and balloting with the rise of Bosniac nationalism, but the dissolution of statehood between Serbia and Montenegro had put an end to all those dreams. Nowadays Bosniacs and other Muslims in Sanjak only want to get some form of recognition in the Serbian Sanjak.
Well, the Presevo Valley already fought a covert war not long ago and proclaimed joining Kosovo more than once. It (or better its ethnic Albanian population) currently demands recognition of its Albanian people, and blackmails the Serbian government.
The Hungarians in Vojvodina already request further inner autonomy on national basis: see Hungarian Regional Autonomy. However, the question of the number of Serbs that would live in that autonomous entity returns the loop. The most extremist minority demands closer ties of even full-scale union with Hungary.
The erratic Macedonian opinion on the very south of Kosovo and Serbia proper is an archaic opinion, long ago abandoned (perhaps not yet in some disillusioned minds).
Note, however, that Serbia would gladly expand, and the Serb part of Bosnia offers a great opportunity for that. Whereas Serbia has an eternal competition in you-know-what with Croatia, it also possesses a hard-core opinion on Kosovo. --PaxEquilibrium 16:16, 7 November 2006 (UTC)
3. Montenegro: Weird situation, but in any case friendly to the Serbs, at least at the moment. Many of its people declare to be Serbians. But there are also Bosniaks and Albanians. Is there any quarantee that after Kosovo, the Albanians will not ask for parts of Montenegro? And if Sanjak will be autonomous or independent at some point in the future, Montenegro will not have common borders with Serbia, whatever this may mean that time...
The dream of the Bosniacs and other Muslims of Sanjak is dead in Montenegro's case; however the Albanians have already proclaimed and are forming their very own entity - Frontier and they prefer union with Albania. The weird situation in Montenegro is not really friendly to the Serbs - the age-old struggle of this divided land between the pro-montenegrins and pro-serbians can still be seen - and the whole controversy of the Montenegrin Question (a Montenegrin ethnicity?) that has onle been tapped. The Serb element in Montenegro is very nationalistic (but so are the docleo-montenegrin champions, right?), and there are some demands (since they cannot win over the whole country, they will satisfy with this:) inner autonomy. We can always also remember the Bay of Kotor and the Croatian nationalistic for it, not to mention even to the point of entire Montenegro itself; or perhaps BH's claims to Herzeg-Novi. Anyway - talking of nationalism, Montenegro is just starting that road. --PaxEquilibrium 16:16, 7 November 2006 (UTC)
4. Slovenia: Maybe the most stable and developed ex-Yugoslav country, with just minor Italian, Croat and Hungarian minorities. But i think that if things go wrong in the rest of the Balkans, it will fall a victim as well. Apropos, this is what happened in the Yugoslav wars as well: it was affected the least, but it was indeed affected.
5. Croatia: I have heard that the regions of Croatia seek for greater autonomy. Personally, i think that federations and creations of autonomous entities are good and democratic things. But the Istriots define themselves first as Istriots and then as Croats (maybe a Catalonia-like autonomy is what they may ask). also, either within the EU or not, te Serb refugees may sometime want to go back to Kraina and Eastern Slavonia (it's just 10 years since they left). in addition there is also a Maguar minority in the country... not that they demand anything special (at least i do not know anything about that), but they may ask if the Hungarians in Voivodina achive anything more...
The Croatian constitutional construction and the whole situation itself is very extremely heavily nationalistic. The general feeling against Serbia and Serbs is very strong as the Serb minority is greatly exposed to pressure and discrimination. Also, the return of masses of Frontier and other Croatian Serbs is in great amass, impossible due to various reasons. . There are no other of those kinds of problems in Croatia, because it has a very strong nationally-bound and ethnically pure population - although I guess the Italians are worth to be at least mentioned. --PaxEquilibrium 16:16, 7 November 2006 (UTC)
6. Romania: the same may apply to the Hungarians in Transylvania. They form a large minority there. there are also the Bulgarians of Dobrugea and the Croats and Serbs of the Romanian Banat, not to mention the repeated complaints of the Ukrainians for their minority (which may or may not be significant).
7. Kosovo: if Kosovo will be independent, what will be the future of the 10% Serbs that live there? a new short-lived federation? unification with Serbia? or maybe Kosovo will be the one to unify with Albania?
8. Albania: Montenegro has historic claims in the northern part (Skodra). the people of FYROM demand freedom for their "minority". the Greeks call southern Albania by the name Northern Epirus. The Greek minority may ask in the future a form of autonomy. according to the Protocol of Corfu, the protocol that established the state of Albania, the Greeks of Northern Epirus should be autonomous. the protocol is still active and so the Greeks, de jure, still have this right. on the other hand, there is also the 'Greater Albania' concept, which demands land from all albania's neighbours... (it is not official policy, but it may become, if Kosovo and Albania become one state).
9. FYROM: the territorial claims over its neighbours have been (at least officially) dropped. but there is still the naming issue with Greece and the condition of a "supposed" minority in Bulgaria and Albania. also, the Albanians within the country and their rights. if Illyrida become independent, following Kosovo and, maybe, uniting with Albania, FYROM will be way too short and weak... Maybe it will be absorbed by Bulgaria and/or Greece. Many people there declare Bulgarian ethnicity... According to the Greeks, the large Greek minority of the country does not appear in censuses...
10. Bulgaria: Apart from the issues of minority rights in all its neighbours, the Bulgarians consider the people of FYROM to be also Bulgarians. Turkey accuses Bulgaria for "mistreatment" of the turkish minority. in NATO bombings in 1999, missiles hit Bulgarian soil... If the Bulgarians had not stayed cool, things could have gone really bad...
11. Greece: the naming issue with FYROM, a possible future issue concerning Northern Epirus, the presence or not of Albanian and "Macedonian" minorities. the muslim minority in Thrace, that Turkey prefers to "baptise" "Turkish", despite the fact that 30% of them are Pomaks and another 10% Roma. complaints from Turkey about the "persecution" of that minority (despite the fact that the Greek minority of Turkey has been expelled and exterminated...). the casus belli with Turkey, for the Law of the Sea.
  • Not to mention the other Roma, Turkish, Gorani and other minorities, that may be small, but can play their own role. I am not refering to countries partly in the Balkans (Turkey, Hungary) or near and infuencial ones (Italy, Ukraine, Austria), or Great Powers (USA, UK, Russia)... My post is already rather long;-).
  • IMO, only within the EU there can be a better and secure future for the Balkan nations, and i consider this another form of Rigas Feraios' plan... If not, guys, there is a long way to go... and, i am sorry to say this, but it doesn't seem to be a peaceful journey... Regards Hectorian 13:39, 7 November 2006 (UTC)


[edit] Opinion of a Croatian villager ;D

Realistically, we can categorize the region's problems into two main categories:

  • Bosnia and Herzegovina

The Bosnia and Herzegovina problem is complicated because it drags Croatia and Serbia into awkward situations. Whatever ultimately happens, it will be a European solution to the country's problems that results. I'm not saying that BiH won't be split, but it certainly won't if it causes any instability in the region. There have been many solutions put forth. One of those has been the creation of a third entity. There was some talk that the SDA offered us a "Croatian County" which would basically have included those areas that in practicality we already control. Of course, there is the spectre of cutting BiH up, but I don't think anyone really wants that anymore. The war-time borders just don't make enough sense. For example, while Serbs may not realize this, the hard-line Croats probably consider preventing a Serbian state from crossing the Drina, as more important than establishing a Croatian state that reaches the Drina. Again, if regional instability could be avoided, it might be a viable option.

For any real hope of lasting peace and prosperity in BiH, two things have to be fulfilled. One is the recognition that its peoples are diverse (and incorporating this into its institutions), and the other is the understanding that while the Serbs and Croats have their own "nation-states", the Bosniaks do not. A Bosnia and Herzegovina of regions might help with this, in which the country would be divided into several units in which no group would have an absolute majoity.

  • Albanian populations

The Albanian problem is just a matter of "waiting things out". A poor Albanian population increasing at a fast pace will eventually become a modern, reasonably well-off population no longer expanding outwards. In the long run, this issue has to be left to stabilize itself. However, in the meantime Kosovo will become independent as a result of the Albanians and Serbia's own politics. This may or may not be good news for the region, but it's certainly better than the status quo. What's important now is that Serbia does not let Kosovo start a Domino-effect. For example, Kosovo independence results in Serbian Radicals getting power, which starts Serb independence movements again, which causes other countries to retaliate... and on and on.

I'll leave off with: As these nations move forward, big questions about borders, flags, and armies will become less important. As people realize that they have been bilked by nationalist ideas that got them very little, they will demand economic improvement, and a higher quality of life. While our peoples will always be proud, and differences will always exist, they simpy won't matter enough anymore. Minority rights will be improved once the majority realizes that this makes good business sense. I think some people are too harsh on the Balkan states: this is the same process that occurred in other parts of Europe, we are just experiencing it rather late due to our unique circumstances. (Sorry for blathering. Hopefully there's something useful in the above mess.)--Thewanderer 21:01, 7 November 2006 (UTC)

[edit] Real and false problems

I read the previous discussion where every single small problem in the Balkans was mentioned, so I want to say that there is difference between those problems. Most of these problems (for example problem of Albanians in Montenegro or Bulgarians in Serbia) are small ones - mainly a questions whether two or three small towns will be on one side of the border or on another. Those are really not big or important problems that could cause large conflicts. The real big problems are presence of large minority populations in some areas, and we have two definitions of the word "large" here: 1. a minority group larger than one million people, 2. a minority group larger than 20% of population of the country. So, let see what are real big problems of the Balkans and how they will be solved by my opinion:

  • 1. Serbia has Albanian minority in Kosovo numbering almost 2,000,000 and since Albanians have very large birth rate their number will drastically increase in the future. Serbia will be never able to incorporate Kosovar Albanians into its social and political system, thus the problem will be solved by independence of Kosovo.
  • 2. Bosnia and Herzegovina has a large ethnic Serb population, numbering about 1,400,000. Bosniak centralists from Sarajevo will be never able to force this population to form centralized Bosnian state, thus this problem will be solved by independence of Republika Srpska.
  • 3. Republic of Macedonia has a large Albanian population numbering about 25% of the population of the country. Since, as I already said, the Albanians have very large birth rate, their number as well as percent will increase. When number of Albanians in the Republic of Macedonia reach 1,000,000 (today is about 500,000), the Republic of Macedonia will be almost certainly divided into two states, in the beginning maybe part of the Federation, but in the end, independent Albanian state of Illyrida will be established.
  • 4. The last large problem are Hungarians in Romania who number about 1,400,000. However, since quite opposite to the Albanians, the Hungarians have very low birth rate, thus their number will only decrease and after few decades will be less than 1,000,000 (we already know that in 1992 there were 1,600,000 Hungarians in Romania, thus we can say that after 30 years their number in Romania will be only about 800,000). Furthermore, the Hungarians in Romania mostly do not live in compact territory but are scatered throughout the country. Their compact population exist only in Szekely Land area, but only about a third of all Romanian Hungarians live in this area. So, the question whether Szekely Land will gain some form autonomy or not would not solve the entire Hungarian question in Romania. It is low birth rate of Hungarians that will solve it, however. PANONIAN (talk) 21:24, 7 November 2006 (UTC)
There was also a opinion that Republika Srpska cannot be independent if Brčko is not part of it because it would be divided into two parts then. Well, check this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Azerbaijan_map.gif Azerbaijan is made of two parts and it is independent. So much about Brčko argument. :) PANONIAN (talk) 21:32, 7 November 2006 (UTC)
There are around 1,600,000 Serbs in Bosnia and Herzegovina. And about Brcko - well, Azerbeijan would not be totally surrounded by two very unfriendly countries (plus, only a small bit is - while RS's core would be away). --PaxEquilibrium 20:34, 8 November 2006 (UTC)

"while RS's core would be away"

It cannot be away from itself. :)) PANONIAN (talk) 00:58, 9 November 2006 (UTC)

Away from the greater part of its territory. Eastern BH is mostly connected to friendly Serbia and Montenegro, whereas the smaller part with the capital will be locked & under siege. Azerbeijan's outer territory is small and generally unimportant (without the capital in it!) and of course, underdeveloped. --PaxEquilibrium 19:21, 9 November 2006 (UTC)
But why you think that Croatia would not be friendly neighbour to RS? As far as I know Croatia have no territorial claims towards RS, thus I do not think that there is a reason for hostility there. Besides this, present-day Bosniaks are too much frustrated with the war, but new generations of Bosniaks that are born today will grew up with knowledge that RS exist, so even they will not feel so large hostility towards it. Besides this, main problem of Bosniaks in the future would be how to establish their dominance over Bosnian Croats, and until they do this, RS is simply to large snack for them to try to swallow it. PANONIAN (talk) 01:36, 10 November 2006 (UTC)
Because 50% of Croats and Bosniacs believe that RS is something like NDH - a crime-forged entity that must under no circumstance be allowed to continue its irridentist existence - while 100% believe that RS should have been abolished by now, and is in the process of its disappearance (well, they're correct - unlike Montenegro and Serbia, who have been distancing from each other, the Federation and the Serbs are getting closer with each passing moment. Considering the relations of RS with Croatia, I can only expect that a Serb Republic's declaration of independence will result with a direct response of a Croatian invasion and military occupation of RS (of course, I'm overreacting - but I'm not overemphasizing). --PaxEquilibrium 16:22, 10 November 2006 (UTC)

You failed to notice that the same condition of the Hungarians in Romania also applies to the Serbs in Republika Srpska - they don't have a particularly impressive birth rate, either. Granted, the extent of the beef with neighbours is different, but then again the matter of geographic dispersion is similar. In general, though, I wouldn't go so far to say that these issues will sort themselves out by means of demography, so all this is moot. --Joy [shallot] 23:52, 9 November 2006 (UTC)

Yes, Serbs in Bosnia might not have "impressive birth rate", but they also do not have so low birth rate as Hungarians in Romania. While Hungarian population in Romania will certainly further decrease, the Serb population in BIH will not increase, but will also not decrease (Serbs in BIH have better birth rate than Serbs in Serbia). PANONIAN (talk) 01:22, 10 November 2006 (UTC)
Well, the highest birthrate the Kosovar Serbs have (families with at least 4 children). The Bosnian Serbs, unlike their Bosnian-Herzegovinian Christian brothers, have a steady low birthrate - but not negative like Serbians, or dramatically low like Montenegrins, Croatian Serbs and Vojvodinian Serbs. --PaxEquilibrium 16:22, 10 November 2006 (UTC)

[edit] "My two lipas worth"

I see the attempt at a common south slav state as the original problem. Such a state was doomed to failure when considering the disparate notions of what the state would look like, with the state only serving as a halfway house for the opposing positions of eventual independence and territorial expansion. Such a state was born by international pressures and logically flawed by not containing Bulgaria, and morally flawed by denying the right of self determination for individual nations. I have to confess astonishment that despite the repression of the 1st Yugoslavia, the resultant antagonism of which gave birth to the extremism of the 1940's, and finally to the repression under the communist regime of the second Yugoslavia, not to mention the brutality of the 1990's wars; it is still viewed with nostalga as some lost ideal by large tracts of the internationalist left, because of the market socialism that looked decent only when compared to the dire state of the command economies to the east.

I also agree with Pannonian in that the solution has been largely resolved - but differ in the analysis of remainling changes with only the independence of Kosovo, a more functional central government for BiH, and integration into Euro-Atlantic institutions being the last jigsaws in the puzzle. Each nation has it's own state in borders that resound with a significant degree of ethnic and historical reality and with regard to economic viability and geography contiguity. I don't believe that after Kosovo's independence their will be border changes. I see the issue raised for each of the republics as follows:

Don't you think that inherits a large POV? From those wording, the thing against the will of Serbs and what is bad for Serbs, or "good anything Serbs say bad" image is received. Different standards for two different situations - and Serbs are on different sides of the two, in both cases would be on the "losing" side - but using same arguments? --PaxEquilibrium 15:12, 25 November 2006 (UTC)

1. Croatia - the hope of an autonomous Serb region or Greater Serbia ended with the rejection of the Z-4 plan just before operation Storm, and continues to live today only in the dreams of nationalists like the Serbian Radicals. As president Mesic stated "....there is no plan A-Z, just the constitution of the Republic of Croatia..."

  • The situation is far more complicated. The legal portion signed the Z-4 peace treaty, whereas a great part of it refused. Croatia initially didn't want to accept z-4, but in the end accepted it only because the Serb side would evidently not accept it. Then, in the very end, both sides switched their respective opinions several times. It should be noted that the necessity and speed of Operation Storm was plainly because of the emergence of problem that such a peace may have been accepted - Croatia would (and did) gain a lot more with a full-scale martial subjection, both receiving the history as a victorious nation (+concept of victor's justice) evading the situations in BH and getting rid of the hostile Serb minority, achieving ethnic purity. Then again, such stubborn acts from the Serb side might be compared to the Kosovar Albanians, who clearly put for a long time and refused any treaty that doesn't guarantee Kosovo the possibility of independence. --PaxEquilibrium 15:12, 25 November 2006 (UTC)
  • The crimes committed in the establishment of the self-procalimed Serb entity has accorded it a stigma of illegitimacy (b/c as discussed in the ICTY evidence, it could not have been achieved or linked with Serbia w/o forced movement of peoples), & has seen an attribution of collective guilt (think VolksDeutch post WWII) because of the lack of remorse and the absense of significant Serb resistance to the entity (compared with for example the Croat Partisans against the NDH), which translates into no sympathy for and suspicion of any idea of territorial autonomy. And in any practical sense, given that most Serb refugees are experiencing better economic conditions and services in the cities where they have settled than in the rural backwaters they fled, the smaller number of Serbs in Croatia today, the trend towards integration, and an aging population, despite a strong Croatian Serb lobby, there isn't the political critical mass to achieve such territorial ambitions. Serbia is also not in a position economically or militarily to undertake the campaigns of the 1990's.
  • I feel the necessity to point out that that which you said is that old ex-Yugoslav propaganda. Just like the mayor of Bijeljina (or some other Bosnian Serb city) said, "we are receiving letters from Bosnian refugees that thank us for population transfers; they owe their great modern lives thanks to our ethnic cleansing" practically. That which you mentioned is nothing but Croatia's propaganda. It's true that Croatian Serbs that have found in the Serbian Republic in B-H have managed somehow (mainly because of the strong national feeling in there), but not much elsewhere (very little in Serbia). NDH also lacks remorse, and up to 1943 the "Croat Army" were the Ustasha forces, and not the Partisans. Then again, comparing the two is impossible - this war was solely to protect the interests of the Serb people - not like the Ustashas, whose ideology lied precisely on the extermination of the "non-aryan" peoples (Serbs, Jews, Romas,...). The majority of Croatian Serb refugees don't have a place to live. Why on earth would Serbia want to return to the 1990s??? --PaxEquilibrium 15:12, 25 November 2006 (UTC)
  • Having said that, with increasing economic prosperity in the Republic of Croatia and it's integration into EuroAtlantic institutions, most remaining Serbs realise that their well-being & future lie looking towards Zagreb rather than Belgrade.
One of the key elements in there lies to the traditional Prechani's Anti-Serbian sentiment that had always been there, and is still today there. --PaxEquilibrium 15:12, 25 November 2006 (UTC)
  • On the issue of regionalisation, this may happen in economic terms, but in terms of political power, the power will still be quite centralised in Zagreb because almost a quarter of the population resides there and accounts for just short of half the country's GDP.
  • Republic of Croatia is also a stabilising force in the region, not only acting as a military counterweight to Serbia, but an exporter of investment and growth, particularly to BiH and Serbia, as well as providing a relevant template for implementing civil and economic reforms that are part of the EU acquis.

2. Bosnia & Herzegovina - the threat to the states viability ironically stems from the economic stagnation and poltical apathy caused by the very unweildly institutions that are there to accomadate the national differences that tore the country apart during the 1990's. A few observations:

  • With a continued NATO presense, the internal security of the country is assured, Serbia is no longer in a position to serve as a threat, and Croatia no longer sees the geopolitical need to sustain a buffer zone in the Croat areas.
  • Although Serbia does not support the secession of the Serb Republic, great circles of it do (very large circles). --PaxEquilibrium 15:12, 25 November 2006 (UTC)
  • All Bosnians, whether they see themselves as Bosnijaks, Croats, Serbs, still share a common regional identity of either being Bosnian or Herzegovinan, and it is this tie that will be leveraged to preserve the country;
  • I think you're wrong on this one. Whereas Croats, and especially Serbs identify themselves with the neighboring countries (Croatia and Serbia, respectively), it is amongst the Bosniacs the generaly opinion that they're foreigners, and in common speech "Bosnian" usually denotes "Bosnian Muslim". Serb/Croats are seen as intruders, particularly through the nationalistic ideology of them being "Christian Bosniacs", created as separate peoples in the 19th century. --PaxEquilibrium 15:12, 25 November 2006 (UTC)
  • Institutions will be reformed to provide more efficient service delivery. Republika Srpska will exist in effect, but the entity governments will need to be abolished to create the cost savings for better services, with the functions of the entities delegated largely to the cantons. This would also remove the need for an explicit third entity as Croat autonomy, as with that of the Muslims and Serbs would be facilitated through the cantonal self-management. With greater political empowerment and relevance comes greater engagement with institutions, translating into greater tax receipts and more functional institutions. In such an environment, the renknown Herzegovinan entrepreneurship could be harnessed, the benefits of which would diffuse into adjoining Serb and Muslim areas.
  • Expect a reform of the presidency with a direct elected president and convention where an ethnic formula applies (similar to Lebanon) where for example a Muslim would be president, a Serb Premier and a Croat Speaker of the parliament.
  • But that divides nations. Also, don't you think that more numerous nations will demand lesser rights to the less numerate ones and that the lesser ones will oppose calling upon mistreatment (like Serbs in Croatia?)? The general opinion is that Bosniacs will be going on assuming full rights and powers, while the Croats will practically vanish. --PaxEquilibrium 15:12, 25 November 2006 (UTC)
  • The talk of independence of RS needs to be taken as a tactical move in the context of Kosovo status negotiations, as well as the just passed elections in BiH. It can also be viewed as a preemptive act to any movement to abolishment of the BiH entities.
  • You're missing the will over the people. The general self-determination's result is indeed independence. --PaxEquilibrium 15:12, 25 November 2006 (UTC)

3. Montenegro - alot of painful reforms, but good things lie ahead as they follow in Croatia's footsteps. The sizeable Serb minority will soon realise where their bread is buttered.

  • In the proper sense of the word, Serbs aren't a minority - and in the late 1990s and in 2004 they were the majority of Montenegro's population. Regardless, if we count all the people with Montenegrin citizenship in the world (this is mainly due to high emigration), the majority of Montenegro's citizens are ever since the fall of Milosevic's regime, Serbs. --PaxEquilibrium 15:12, 25 November 2006 (UTC)

4. Macedonia - With an ongoing NATO presense in Kosovo and Albanian populated parts of Macedonia, I see no security issues of significance. This area of the world will slowly be absorbed by the EU over the next 15years.

  • The situation looks somewhat stable for now - but for how long? FYROM's unitarian, and its Albanians don't like it - especially the new government was formed with the help of the minor pro-Macedonian Albanian national parties, practically ignoring the majority of the vote. Also, the Albanians have a rather high birth rate - they're destined to become the majority of the population of the Republic of Macedonia soon enough. --PaxEquilibrium 15:12, 25 November 2006 (UTC)

5. Serbia - once the elites jettison any Greater Serbia visions, are able to let go of Kosovo, and fill their obligations to the ICTY, go through the painful privitisation reforms that the other EU candidates had gone through, they too will eventually accrue the benefits of EuroAtlantic integration. In the short term, I forecast alot of economic pain. But the rub-off of econcomic prosperity of neighbouring republics will help ease that pain. Will have to contend with significant influence of Croatian Corporates like INA, Podravka etc as well as the dominance of the Kuna. iruka 15:33, 24 November 2006 (UTC)

  • Well, privatizing is almost done. You don't need to forecast, because that's already happening for a long time :). --PaxEquilibrium 15:12, 25 November 2006 (UTC)
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