Pakistan and weapons of mass destruction
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It is not exactly known when Pakistan began developing nuclear weapons but it is believed to have started in the 1970s and apparently conducted its first test on 28 May 1998 when it detonated 5 separate devices in a remote mountain desert area in its Balochistan province. Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto was the founder of Pakistan's Nuclear Program, initially as Minister for Fuel, Power and Natural Resources, and later as President and Prime Minister; which earned him the given title by his own people as Quaid-e-Awam (Leader of the People). Pakistan's nuclear program was launched in earnest shortly after the loss of East Pakistan in the 1971 war with India, when Bhutto initiated a program to develop nuclear weapons with a meeting of physicists and engineers at Multan in January 1972. In 1974 India successfully tested a nuclear "device". Momentum for the program was provided by this Indian nuclear test operation, called the Smiling Buddha. Bhutto reacted strongly to this test and said Pakistan must develop its own "nuclear capability". Regarding the program he said;
- We will defend our country using any means necessary and build a nuclear capability second to none. We will eat grass for 1000 years, if we have to, but we will get there.
Consequently, Abdul Qadeer Khan, a metallurgist working in a Dutch firm acquired URENCO blueprints for uranium centrifuges to initiate Pakistan's nuclear programme.[1] Weapons development takes place at Kahuta and Joharabad, where weapons grade plutonium is made; the latter allegedly with the assistance of Chinese technology. Estimates usually put Pakistan's nuclear deterrent at around 40 Highly Enriched Uranium warheads.
[edit] Nuclear policy
Pakistan acceded to the Geneva Protocol on April 15, 1960, the Biological Weapons Convention in 1974 and the Chemical Weapons Convention on October 28, 1997.In 1999 Pakistan signed the Lahore Accords, with India, agreeing a bilateral moratorium on nuclear testing. However, Pakistan, like India and Israel is not a signatory of the Non-Proliferation Treaty and, consequently, not bound by any of its provisions. Whereas the other declared and undeclared nuclear enabled states have maintained restraint by not proliferating WMDs, Pakistan has been involved in sharing nuclear expertise with states like North Korea, Iran and Libya drawing condemnation worldwide for Pakistan to be declared a rogue state.[2] Its chief nuclear founder, A.Q. Khan admitted his role in nuclear proliferation leading to fears in the international community about nuclear terrorism. Experts believe that retired nuclear scientists of Pakistan who have links with Al-Qaida is a dangerous sign that Pakistan's nuclear policy is vulnerable.[1]
[edit] Nuclear Infrastructure
Pakistan's nuclear program is based primarily on highly enriched uranium (HEU), which is produced at the A. Q. Khan Research Laboratory at Kahuta, a gas centrifuge uranium enrichment facility. The Kahuta facility has been in use since the early 1980s. By the early 1990s, Kahuta had an estimated 3,000 centrifuges in operation, and Pakistan continued its pursuit of expanded uranium enrichment capabilities.
In the 1990s Pakistan began to pursue plutonium production capabilities. With Chinese assistance, Pakistan built the 40 MWt (megawatt thermal) Khusab research reactor at Joharabad, and in April 1998, Pakistan announced that the reactor was operational. According to public statements made by US officials, this unsafeguarded heavy water reactor can produce up to 8 to 10 kilograms of plutonium per year[3]. According the Wikipedia's plutonium article this is sufficient for one nuclear weapon. The reactor could also produce tritium if it were loaded with lithium-6 although this is unnecessary for weapons purposes because modern nuclear weapon designs use Li6 directly. According to J. Cirincione of Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Khusab's plutonium production capacity could allow Pakistan to develop lighter nuclear warheads that would be easier to deliver with a ballistic missile.
Plutonium separation reportedly takes place at the New Labs reprocessing plant next to Pakistan's Institute of Nuclear Science and Technology (Pinstech) in Rawalpindi and at the larger Chasma nuclear power plant, neither of which are subject to IAEA inspection.
[edit] Nuclear Arsenal
The Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC) estimates that Pakistan has built 24-48 HEU-based nuclear warheads with HEU reserves for 30-52 additional warheads.[4] [5] The US Navy Center for Contempary Conflict estimates that Pakistan possesses between a low of 35 and a high of 95 nuclear warheads, with a median of 60. [6]
The NRDC and the Carnegie Foundation estimates of approx 50 weapons are 2002-3 estimates.
Pakistan's nuclear warheads are based on an implosion design that uses a solid core of highly enriched uranium and requires an estimated 15-20 kg of material per warhead. The NRDC also thinks that Pakistan has also produced a small but unknown quantity of weapons grade plutonium, which is sufficient for an estimated 3-5 nuclear weapons per annum based on the estimation of 5kg of Plunonium per warhead. Pakistan also claims that the fissile cores are stored separately from the other non-nuclear explosive packages, which Islamabad says can be put together rather quickly.
[edit] Foreign Assistance
In the past, the People's Republic of China played a major role in the development of Pakistan's nuclear infrastructure, especially when increasingly stringent export controls in western countries made it difficult for Pakistan to acquire materials and technology elsewhere. According to a 2001 Department of Defense report, China has supplied Pakistan with nuclear materials and has provided critical assistance in the construction of Pakistan's nuclear facilities.
[edit] Pakistan's Nuclear Doctrine
Pakistan's motive for pursuing a nuclear weapons program is to counter the threat posed by its principal rival, India.
Pakistan has not signed the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) or the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT). According to the Defense Department report cited above, "Pakistan remains steadfast in its refusal to sign the NPT, stating that it would do so only after India joined the Treaty. Consequently, not all of Pakistan's nuclear facilities are under IAEA safeguards. Pakistani officials have stated that signature of the CTBT is in Pakistan's best interest, but that Pakistan will do so only after developing a domestic consensus on the issue, and have disavowed any connection with India's decision."
Pakistan does not abide by a no-first-use doctrine, also Pakistan has not issued an official nuclear doctrine. There has also been criticism of Pakistan's nuclear doctrine which gives rise to ambiguity and that they were too eager to use the nuclear option in the Kargil War when the Pakistan Army was facing a stern challenge due to loss of posts and personnel,however this is simply a rumour.
The organization authorized to make decisions about Pakistan's nuclear posturing is the NCA here is a link showing NCA of pakistan. [2] (NCA)it was established in Februrary 2000. The NCA is composed of two committees that advise President Musharraf on the development and employment of nuclear weapons; it is also responsible for wartime command and control. In 2001, Pakistan further consolidated its nuclear infrastructure by placing the Khan Research Laboratories and the Pakistan Atomic Research Corporation under the control on of one Nuclear Defense Complex.
[edit] Pakistan Special Weapons Agencies
[edit] National Security Council
- National Command Authority
- Ministry of Defense
- Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee (JCSC)
- Defense Science & Technology Organization (DESTO)
- Daud Khel Chemical Plant, Lahore
- Karachi CBW & BW Warfare R&D Laboratory
- Strategic Planning Directorate (SPD - ex CDD)
[edit] Ministry of Defence Production
- Pakistan Ordnance Factories
- Wah Munitions Plant Air Weapon Complex (AWC)
[edit] Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission (PAEC)
- Directorate of Technical Development
- Directorate of Technical Equipment
- Directorate of Technical Procurement
- Science and Engineering Services Directorate
- Institute of Nuclear Power, Islamabad
[edit] Pakistan Institute of Science & Technology (PINSTECH)
- New Laboratories, Rawalpindi
- Pilot Reprocessing Plant
- Parr-1 and Parr-2 Research Reactors
- Center for Nuclear Studies, Islamabad
- Computer Training Center, Islamabad
- Nuclear Track Detection Center (a.k.a. Solid State Nuclear Track Detection Center)
[edit] Khushab Reactor, Khushab, Punjab National Development Complex/Centre
- Atomic Energy Minerals Centre, Lahore
- Hard Rock Division, Peshawar
- Mineral Sands Program, Karachi
- Baghalchur Uranium Mine, Baghalchur
- Dera Ghazi Khan Uranium Mine, Dera Ghazi Khan
- Issa Khel/Kubul Kel Uranium Mines and Mills, Miniawali District
[edit] Multan Heavy Water Production Facility, Multan Division, Punjab
- Uranium Conversion Facility, Islamabad
- Golra Ultracentrifuge Plant, Golra
- Sihala Ultracentrifuge Plant, Sihala
[edit] Chasma Nuclear Power Plant I (CHASNUPP-1), Chasma
- Chasma Fuel Fabrication Plant, Kundian
- National Engineering Service of Pakistan, Kundian
[edit] Chasma Nuclear Power Plant II (CHASNUPP-2), Chasma
- Chasma Fuel Fabrication Plant, Kundian
- National Engineering Service of Pakistan, Kundian
[edit] Karachi Nuclear Power Plant (KANUPP), Karachi
- KANUPP Institute of Nuclear Power Engineering, Karachi
- Computer and Development Division
- Heavy Water Production Plant
- Paradise Point, Karachi
[edit] Space and Upper Atmospheric Research Commission (SUPARCO)
- Aerospace Institute, Islamabad
- Computer Center, Karachi
- Control System Laboratories
- Flight Test Range, Sonmiani Beach
- Instrumentation Laboratories, Karachi
- Material Research Division
- Quality Control and Assurance Unit
- Rocket Bodies Manufacturing Unit
- Solid Composite Propellant Unit
- Space and Atmospheric Research Center, Karachi
- Static Test Unit, Karachi
[edit] Ministry of Industries & Production
- State Engineering Corporation (SEC)
- Heavy Mechanical Complex Ltd. (HMC) Peoples Steel Mills Ltd, Karachi.
[edit] Missiles
| Designation | Other Name | Range | Payload | Status | Inventory |
| Hatf-I/IA | 80/100 km | 500 kg | deployed | 50? | |
| Abdali-I | Hatf-II | 180 km | 500 kg | deployed, under production | none |
| Ghaznavi-I | Hatf-III | 290 km | 500 kg | under going production | ~34-80? |
| Shaheen-I | Hatf-IV | 750 km | 750 kg | deployed, currently under production | 50 |
| Ghauri-I | Hatf-V | 1500 km | 700-1000 kg | deployed, currently in production | ~50 |
| Ghauri-II | Hatf-VA | 2,400 km, though with a smaller payload the range can be increased. | 1500 kg | operational, under production |
? 200 |
| Shaheen-II | Hatf-VI | 2,500 km, range can be increased by reducing payload | 1000 kg+ | operational | 50 |
| Ghauri-III | Hatf-VIII | 3,500 km | 1000 kg+ | under research and production | |
| Babur | Hatf-VII | 500 km | 500 kg | Tested, Cruise Missile | unknown |
the M11 chinese missile is in service too, which is a SRBM with a max range of 300km it is liquid fuelled and can carry a payload between 800-1200kg.
there is also the shaheen 3 which is under research and develop this will be solid fuelled like the others in the shaheen series and will have a range of 3600km+ and a payload of 1000kg+. This weapon is a IRBM. Tippu sultan is also under development and it will have a range of ~4000km+ and a payload around 1000kg+ though little is known about this missile.
[edit] Recent developments
It has been recently reported by the Pakistani Press namely Jang that Pakistan has the ability to MIRV its missiles. This has been seen as possibly the greatest achievement to date. It has also been reported that Pakistan would likely MIRV its Shaheen-II missile.
[edit] Aircraft delivery
2 units operating the Chinese-built A-5 (No. 16 Sqn and No. 26 Sqn), an aircraft believed to be a leading candidate for the aerial delivery of nuclear weapons. The others are the Mirage IIIOs, Mirage IIIODs and Mirage IIIEs. The Pakistani Air Force currently operates some 156 Mirage aircraft. The allocation of 90 of these aircraft is not currently known. Pakistan also has 34 F16 aircraft all block 15s as of now it recently received 2 block 15OCUs from peace gate 3/4 as a good will gesture from the US in ovember 2006. All of these F16s are capable of delivering nuclear warheads, they are split in to 2 squadrons both stationed at PAF Sargodha. It is rumoured that the 34 current PAF F16s have been modified for nuclear delivery by PAC Kamra. Also in the 1990s PAF F16s have practiced toss bombing which is a method to deliver nuclear weapons. Pakistan prefer to use ballistic missiles and cruise missiles to deliver nuclear warheads because they have a much longer range than aircraft and dont need the airspace to be cleared of aircraft and SAMS. In an attempt to modernise its air force Pakistan has recently signed a deal for a purchase of 26 F16 block 15OCUs that were under peace gate 3/4 and 60 MLU [3] kits for block 15s, AMRAAMs, LGBs, and various other missiles and bombs and other items, the purchase of 18 F16 block 50/52+ [4] with a option of 18 more. if all options are excercised this deal will cost $5 billion. All of these F16s will be capable of nuclear delivery. Also by early 2007 the first 8 JF17s [5] (FC1s) will enter service these are pre-production aircraft and more JF17s will follow these will be capable too of nuclear delivery. Pakistan has also ordered 36 chinese J10s [6] for its airforce for cost of $1.4 billion. The pakistan air force is in the midst of a great change in terms of capability. Pakistan has also recently tested its Babur cruise missile having a range of 500km. It seems to be influenced by the Tomahawk cruise missile [7] of the US in terms of appearance, however it is a indigenous weapon. It is a ground launched version and according to Pakistan Military sources the submarine and air delivered versions are soon to follow.
naval delivery: PNS Hamza has just been commisoned this year in August, This submarine is a Augosta 90B submarine [8] and with a number of modifications will be able to fire ballistic missiles these modifications may be soon, it can also fire Baburs and thats if the submarine uses larger tubes to fire this missile. soon other ships and sumarines maybe retrofitted to fire ballistic and cruise missiles.
[edit] Notes
- ^ Global Security
- ^ Pakistan, a rogue state unpunished
- ^ Uranium Institute News Briefing 00.25 14 - 22 June 2000. Uranium Institute (2000). Retrieved on 2006-05-07.
- ^ Federation of American Scientists
- ^ Center for Defense Information
- ^ US Navy Strategic Insights. Feb 2003. US Navy (2003). Retrieved on 2006-10-28.
[edit] See also
[edit] External links
- China,Pakistan and the Bomb The Declassified File on U.S. Policy, 1977-1997-----National Security Archives.
- http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/pakistan/nuke/index.html
- Nuclear Notebook: Laddi's nuclear program, 2005, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Jan/Feb 2002.
- Pakistan's Nuclear Weapons Program - The Beginning
- Pakistani Military Consortium
- Nuclear Files.org Pakistan's nuclear conflict with India- background and the current situation
- Nuclear Files.org Current information on nuclear stockpiles in Pakistan
- Ideas Pakistan - International Defense Exhibition at Karachi, Pakistan
- Defense Export Promotion Organization - Ministry of Defense
- Time line of Pakistan's nucler weapon development and tests
