Opinion polling in the Canadian federal election, 2006/Old projections

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[edit] Seat predictions

The Hill and Knowlton election predictor has been used to compile these figures. A party needs 155 seats or more to have a majority. Bold text indicates a majority while italic text indicates a plurality. A star denotes the Official Opposition in the listed scenario.

The Hill and Knowlton predictor uses a "national swing" predictor to create riding predictors. A change in the national polling as it relates to the final vote percentages from the 2004 elections result in a change in each riding by that amount. The downside to this method is that it assumes the entire country and each riding to be fluctuating at the same rate and does not take local issues into account. However, it is helpful in indicating certain indirect trends.

The seats positioned in the "other" column are usually Surrey North and two ridings in Saskatchewan. The Hill and Knowlton predictor does not take into account different independent candidates running in those ridings, nor does it take into account the death of independent MP Chuck Cadman who won Surrey North in 2004 but will obviously not be a candidate in 2006.

Polling Firm	Date	Link	Liberal	Conservative	NDP	BQ	Other
Final Results	January 23, 2006	HTML	103*	124	29	51	1
Strategic Counsel	January 22, 2006		56	149	41	61*	1
SES Research	January 22		84*	134	34	55	1
Ipsos-Reid	January 21		46	157	42	62*	1
EKOS	January 20		53	151	41	62*	1
Strategic Counsel	January 19		63*	154	28	62	1
SES Research	January 19		88*	135	28	56	1
EKOS	January 19		73*	135	40	59	1
Strategic Counsel	January 17		38	173	31	65*	1
SES Research	January 17		93*	130	34	51	0
EKOS	January 17		56	149	41	61*	1
SES Research	January 16		84*	135	31	65	1
Strategic Counsel	January 16		33	178	31	65*	1
EKOS	January 16		73*	131	42	61	1
Ipsos-Reid	January 15		49	157	42	59*	1
SES Research	January 15		67*	149	33	58	1
EKOS	January 15		50	156	40	61*	1
SES Research	January 14		80*	146	28	53	1
Strategic Counsel	January 14		54	166	26	61*	1
SES Research	January 13		70*	155	24	58	1
Strategic Counsel	January 12		58	162	26	61*	1
Ipsos-Reid	January 12		73*	139	36	59	1
SES Research	January 12		86*	153	17	51	1
EKOS	January 12		58	148	40	61*	1
EKOS	January 12		53	153	39	62*	1
Strategic Counsel	January 11		52	165	26	64*	1
SES Research	January 11		67*	154	25	61	1
EKOS	January 11		67[1]	137	37	67[1]	0
Strategic Counsel	January 10		57	162	26	62*	1
SES Research	January 10		69*	154	23	61	1
EKOS	January 10		75*	137	34	61	1
Strategic Counsel	9 January		61	157	27	62*	1
SES Research	9 January		84*	129	31	63	1
EKOS	9 January		49	165	27	66*	1
Decima Research	8 January		56	142	48	61*	1
Strategic Counsel	8 January		72*	147	21	67	1
SES Research	8 January		97*	127	29	54	1
SES Research	7 January		100*	127	29	51	1
EKOS	4 January		86*	133	35	53	1
SES Research	3 January		95*	131	19	62	1
Strategic Counsel	December 31, 2005		103*	110	31	63	1
Ipsos-Reid	December 31		91*	121	36	59	1
Decima Research	December 30		95*	106	41	65	1
SES Research	December 29		114*	121	13	59	1
Strategic Counsel	December 18		110	94*	43	60	1
Strategic Counsel	December 13		114	97*	34	62	1
Pollara	December 11		146	95*	14	52	1
Ipsos-Reid	December 11		132	80*	33	62	1
SES Research	December 11	PDF	145	97*	11	54	1
Strategic Counsel	December 10	PDF	123	101*	19	62	3
SES Research	December 10	PDF	154	89*	14	50	1
SES Research	9 December	PDF	154	89*	14	50	1
SES Research	8 December	PDF	166	63*	30	48	1
Strategic Counsel	8 December		131	87*	27	62	1
Ipsos-Reid	8 December		119	105*	20	62	2
Last election	28 June 2004		135	99*	19	54	1

1. ↑ The Liberals, by convention, would become the official opposition should they tie with another party for the second highest number of seats in the House of Commons, as they were previously the governing party. Any mid-term reduction in the number of Liberal seats, however, would immediately result in the Bloc Quebecois becoming the official opposition.

The Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy, using Barry Kay's regional swing model, predicted on January 10, 2006 that the election would result in the following representation in the House of Commons: 133 Conservative, 93 Liberal, 60 Bloc Quebecois, and 22 NDP.[1] On January 20, this prediction was updated to call for the following representation: 139 Conservative, 83 Liberal, 56 Bloc Quebecois and 29 NDP. Each day during the campaign, the results of these two models and four others are averaged and displayed in graph form at TrendLines.ca. The volatility of Seat Projections (and polls) as exhibited in the 2004 Election is illustrated there as well.