User:Nilfanion/quotes

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This is a list of quotes from NHC forecasters taken from the discussions on various storms, TCRs and possibly other places. Consecutively numbered discussions are (generally) 6 hours apart.

Feel free to add NHC quotes you find interesting on any Atlantic/East Pacific storm.

Contents

[edit] 2005 Atlantic hurricane season

[edit] Tropical Storm Arlene

Storm became extratropical after 15 discussions

  1. Discussion 8, Dr. Beven: The intensity forecast remains problematic… The SHIPS model calls for the storm to reach 45-50 kt intensity before landfall, while the GFDL calls for a 64 kt intensity at landfall.
  2. Discussion 9, Dr. Avila and Dr. Knabb: Arlene has been characterized by a broad circulation with a poorly-defined center. In fact, several centers have been rotating around the much larger circulation.
  3. Discussion 11, S. Stewart: Timing the various convective bursts is nearly impossible.
  4. Discussion 15, S. Stewart: Arlene has continued to weaken as the cyclone moves farther inland… even though the satellite and radar signatures have improved. In fact, Arlene looks better now than it did over water during most of its lifetime.

[edit] Tropical Storm Bret

[edit] Hurricane Cindy

  1. Discussion 1, Dr. Pasch: Interestingly, global models forecast little or no development of this tropical cyclone for the next several days and the GFDL model weakens it over the northwest Gulf of Mexico.
  2. Discussion 3, Dr. Beven: The models that forecast an organized tropical cyclone indicate that the depression should move...toward the Louisiana or upper Texas coasts. An alternative scenario is that the depression circulation becomes elongated and disorganized. This would allow for a weaker system to move northwestward towards Texas or northeastern Mexico.
  3. Discussion 5, Dr. Pasch: Today's dilemma is the apparent reformation of the center to the north of Yucatan
  4. Discussion 5, Dr. Pasch: This northward repositioning forces a significant change to the track forecast and moves up the time of arrival at the center of the northern Gulf Coast.

[edit] Hurricane Dennis

[edit] Hurricane Emily

Storm dissipated after 44 discussions

  1. Discussion 8, J. Franklin: So far, the 2005 hurricane season seems to have little interest in climatology.

[edit] Tropical Storm Franklin

Storm became extratropical after 34 discussions

  1. Discussion 8, J. Franklin: Franklin, the storm, not the forecaster has become a little better organized overnight.
  2. Discussion 8, J. Franklin: Small systems are frequently not that resistant to shear.
  3. Discussion 8, J. Franklin: It is quite possible that little or nothing will be left of Franklin, the storm, not the forecaster, in 2-3 days.
  4. Discussion 9, S. Stewart: It appears that this system will probably go on and become a hurricane.
  5. Discussion 13, Dr. Pasch: Franklin is forecast to be dissipating over cooler waters.
  6. Discussion 13, Dr. Pasch: These sheared tropical cyclones have been known to be tenacious.
  7. Discussion 16, J. Franklin: Guidance shows Franklin becoming absorbed.
  8. Discussion 17, Dr. Pasch: Assuming that the system moves anywhere near our forecast track, the cyclone should be...dissipating.
  9. Discussion 18, Dr. Pasch: Franklin continues to move erratically, taking one step backwards for every few steps forward.

[edit] Tropical Storm Gert

[edit] Tropical Storm Harvey

Storm became extratropical after 26 discussions

  1. Discussion 1, J. Franklin: This is also not the most tropical of tropical cyclones.
  2. Discussion 7, Dr. Avila and R. Berg: Shear is not normally a detriment to non-pure tropical cyclones like Harvey.
  3. Discussion 9, Dr. Avila: There has been a remarkable transformation in the storm pattern since yesterday and most of the hybrid or subtropical characteristics...are no longer present.

[edit] Hurricane Irene

Storm became extratropical after 56 discussions

  1. Discussion 1, Dr. Avila: The intensity forecast...brings the depression to hurricane status by 72 hours.
  2. Discussion 4, Dr. Avila: How little we know about the genesis of tropical cyclones.
  3. Discussion 4, Dr. Avila: A modest development is anticipated...if it survives
  4. Discussion 11, Dr. Beven: The GFDL model, which has consistenly dissipated the depression, now calls for it to reach hurricane status.
  5. Discussion 13, J. Franklin: The GFDL model dissipates Irene within 48 hours.
  6. Discussion 19, J. Franklin: This SHIPS guidance...brings Irene to nearly hurricane strength in five days. An opposing view is provided by the GFDL model, which dissipates Irene within 24 hours.
  7. Discussion 19, J. Franklin: As Irene has perservered through an environment seemingly more hostile than what it is currently embedded in, I am getting less hopeful about the dissipation option.
  8. Discussion 23, J. Franklin: There is little or no evidence that Irene still has a closed circulation.
  9. Discussion 24, S. Stewart: It is possible that Irene could reach hurricane strength.
  10. Discussion 27, S. Stewart: The models diverge quite significantly with the UKMET and NOGAPS recurving Irene...while the GFDL and GFDN...bring Irene very near the North Carolina coast by 120 hours. The GFS, however, quickly dissipates Irene.
  11. Discussion 47, S. Stewart: The increasing baroclinic energy should keep Irene a rather potent extratropical storm over the far north Atlantic.
  12. Discussion 51, S. Stewart: Irene is expected to become absorbed by a larger extratropical low.

[edit] Tropical Storm Jose

[edit] Hurricane Katrina

[edit] Tropical Storm Lee

Storm dissipated after 11 discussions

  1. Discussion 6, Dr. Avila: There is an uncertainty in the intensity of the tropical cyclone at this time.
  2. Discussion 6, Dr. Avila: The intensity forecast calls for only a slight strengthening.
  3. Discussion 7, J. Franklin and J. Rhome: Lee is downgraded to a depression.
  4. Discussion 8, Dr. Beven: The merger of Lee and the non-tropical low calls into question how tropical Lee is.

[edit] Hurricane Maria

[edit] Hurricane Nate

Storm became extratropical after 20 discussions

  1. Discussion 1, Dr. Pasch: Increase[s] the shear and put an end to the intensification. SHIPS model guidance follows this trend, peaking the intensity at 60 knots.
  2. Discussion 2, Dr. Knabb: The GFDL does not even forecast the system to ever reach tropical storm status, which is obviously underdone, the SHIPS model forecasts strengthening to a hurricane.
  3. Discussion 10, Dr. Beven and Lt. Roberts: The latest GFS run suggests that Nate will become absorbed within the circulation of Maria...the UKMET indicates binary interaction with Maria near day 4, ultimately merging into a very large and powerful system...All other guidance, as well as the official forecast, maintains the system throughout the period.

[edit] Hurricane Ophelia

Storm became extratropical after 48 discussions

  1. Discussion 3, Dr. Beven: The GFS and UKMET suggest that the deep-layer trough could come close enough to feed cooler air into the cyclone, and should that happen it could throw a monkey wrench into the cyclone structure and the intensity forecast.
  2. Discussion 5, Dr. Avila: Both the GFDL and the ECMWF bring the cyclone westward over the northern Gulf of Mexico. This is probably the worst case scenario for the northern Gulf coast.
  3. Discussion 6, Dr. Avila: Models continue in great disagreement with regards to the track. The GFS which looped the cyclone back to the west in the previous run, is now showing a track to the northeast. The NOGAPS which earlier turned Ophelia to the northeast waway from Florida is bringing the cyclone back to the U.S. coast. The GFDL stubbornly insists on a track to the west-northwest toward Florida, and the story goes on and on. Since the official forecast does not have the luxury of making such large changes in track every six hours...
  4. Discussion 15, Dr. Beven: The new forecast track… calls for Ophelia to… make landfall in the southeastern United States.
  5. Discussion 15, Dr. Beven: It is possible that Ophelia could become a Category 3 hurricane, but it would not be a suprise if it strengthened less than currently forecast.
  6. Tropical Cyclone Report, Dr. Beven and H. Cobb: Average track errors… are considerably lower than the average official track errors for the past 10 years.

[edit] Hurricane Philippe

Storm dissipated after 27 discussions

  1. Discussion 10, S. Stewart and D. Brown: The GFDL brings Philippe to a major hurricane in 24 hours.
  2. Discussion 13, Dr. Avila and D. Brown: The intensity forecast weakens Philippe to a tropical storm in 12 hours.
  3. Discussion 16, Dr. Pasch: Given the difficulties that the global models can have in predicting tropical upper-level flows, I am somewhat dubious about the upper-level winds becoming more favorable.
  4. Discussion 17, D. Brown and J. Franklin: It is a little hard to understand why both the SHIPS and GFDL models re-intensify Philippe.
  5. Discussion 24, S. Stewart: After coming out of the dreaded satellite eclipse period...

[edit] Hurricane Rita

[edit] Hurricane Stan

[edit] Tropical Storm Tammy

[edit] Hurricane Vince

Storm dissipated after 8 discussions

  1. Discussion 1, Dr. Knabb: Vince could easily be deemed to have become a subtropical storm yesterday.
  2. Discussion 2, Dr. Knabb: If it looks like a hurricane, it probably is, despite its environment and unusual location.
  3. Discussion 8, J. Franklin: As the short happy life of Vince is now over, this will be the last advisory.
  4. Tropical Cyclone Report, J. Franklin: The rain in Spain was mostly less than 2 inches, although 3.30 inches fell in the plain at Cordoba.

[edit] Hurricane Wilma

[edit] Tropical Storm Alpha

[edit] Hurricane Beta

[edit] Tropical Storm Gamma

[edit] Tropical Storm Delta

[edit] Hurricane Epsilon

Storm dissipated after 37 discussions

  1. Discussion 3, Dr. Beven: Then, the frontal system associated with the approaching deep-layer trough should begin to merge with Epsilon in about 72 hr, eventually causing the storm to become extratropical.
  2. Discussion 10, S. Stewart: Slow but steady weakening is expected to begin in 12-24 hours.
  3. Discussion 21, Dr. Avila: However, the upper level winds are expected to be highly unfavorable and Epsilon will likely become a remnant low. I heard that before about Epsilon, haven't you?
  4. Discussion 24, J. Franklin: It seems that an imminent extratropical transition is, alas, a lost cause.
  5. Discussion 25, Dr. Avila: I am not going to speculate any more on the future intensity of Epsilon.
  6. Discussion 26, Dr. Avila: Epsilon resembles one of these annular hurricanes.
  7. Discussion 26, Dr. Avila: By then [in 72 hrs] Epsilon should be a remnant low, we would like.
  8. Discussion 27, Dr. Knabb: We have said this before at times during the past several nights, only to have Epsilon make a comeback the following morning, but Epsilon really does not appear as strong this evening as it did this afternoon.
  9. Discussion 28, Dr. Avila: I have run out of things to say, and this one will be short.
  10. Discussion 31, J. Franklin: The end is in sight. It really really is.
  11. Discussion 32, Dr. Avila: The end is in sight, yes, but not quite yet.
  12. Discussion 37, Dr. Avila: I hope this is the end of the long lasting 2005 hurricane season.

[edit] Tropical Storm Zeta

Storm dissipated after 30 discussions

  1. Discussion 1, J. Franklin: Shear is expected to increase sharply over the cyclone, so Zeta probably has a short life ahead of it.
  2. Discussion 2, J. Franklin: Although the atmosphere seems to want to develop tropical storms ad nauseum, the calendar will shortly put an end to the use of the Greek Alphabet to name them.
  3. Discussion 3, Dr. Knabb: The official forecast track gradually bends to the west as Zeta likely degenerates into a remnant low within the next couple of days.
  4. Discussion 4, S. Stewart: It is quite possible that Zeta could even survive beyond 72 hours.
  5. Discussion 11, Dr. Avila: This is like previous tropical cyclone Epsilon all over again. Most of the conventional guidance suggested that Zeta should have been dissipated by now, well it is not indeed, and Zeta is pretty much alive at this time.
  6. Discussion 11, Dr. Avila: I have no choice but to forecast weakening again and again.
  7. Discussion 12, S. Stewart: The strength of the upper-level winds, which should act to shear away most of the associated convection and finally bring the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season to a merciful ending.
  8. Discussion 13, Dr. Pasch: The latest GFDL run is back to strengthening Zeta into a hurricane.
  9. Discussion 14, Dr. Pasch: Clearly we need an increased understanding of intensity change for systems in the subtropics such as Zeta, Epsilon, Vince, etc.
  10. Discussion 15, Dr. Avila: A bravo for the GFDL. It has been the only model which has kept Zeta alive during the past few days.
  11. Discussion 18, Dr. Pasch: So, although you've heard this from us before, we expect a weakening trend to commence tomorrow.
  12. Discussion 21, Dr. Avila: As you can see, I ran out of things to say.
  13. Discussion 24, Dr. Beven: Zeta is downgraded to a 30 kt tropical depression.
  14. Discussion 25, S. Stewart: So, regretfully, the intensity has been increased to 35 kt and Zeta is a tropical storm once again.
  15. Discussion 26, S. Stewart: Therefore, only slow weakening is expected for the next 12 hours or so, after which strong shear..."should" decapitate the cyclone.
  16. Discussion 27, Dr. Pasch: Although it seems as if Zeta will never die, the forecast continues to show weakening.
  17. Discussion 30, S. Stewart: So, until the 2006 season begins, unless Zeta somehow makes an unlikely miracle comeback, this is the National Hurricane Center signing off for 2005, finally.

[edit] 2005 Pacific hurricane season

[edit] Tropical Depression 16E

Storm dissipated after 19 advisories; no advisories were issued over a 1 day 12 hour period while the storm was a remnant low between being a tropical depression.

  1. Discussion 1, S. Stewart: The GFDL takes the depression west-southwestward fairly quickly and intensifies it into an 81-kt hurricane by 72 hours. The rest of the models keep the system relatively weak and even dissipate it by 48 hours.
  2. Discussion 19, S. Stewart: This will be final advisory... Part deux... on this system.
  3. Tropical Cyclone Report, S. Stewart: [It] is possible that the depression may have briefly reached tropical storm strength.

[edit] 2003 Atlantic hurricane season

[edit] Tropical Storm Henri

Storm dissipated after 21 discussions.

  1. Discussion 21, Blake/Pasch: The Guillotine has fallen on Henri.

[edit] Tropical Storm Peter

Storm dissapated after 8 discussions.

  1. Discussion 1, Avila: Global models did it again...They succesfully forecast[ed] the genesis of Tropical Cyclone Peter as they did with Odette.
  2. Discussion 3, Avila: Peter may have been a hurricane for a short period of time

earlier today when a banding-type eye was observed...

  1. Discussion 7, Roberts/Avila: ...Peter has refused to dissapate...
  2. Discussion 8, Franklin: ...This will be the last advisory on Peter, and with any luck, the last advisory for the 2003 [Atlantic] hurricane season.

[edit] 2006 Pacific hurricane season

[edit] Tropical Storm Olivia

  1. Discussion 11, Stewart: Olivia is having a bad hair day in terms of maintaining status as a tropical cyclone...

[edit] 2004 Atlantic hurricane season

[edit] Hurricane Alex

  1. Discussion 19, Stewart: Alex has become one for the record books tonight...
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