New South Wales legislative election, 2007

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2007 New South Wales state election major party leaders
Labor		Liberal

Morris Iemma Premier of New South Wales		Peter Debnam Opposition Leader
Parliament	15 years	Parliament	12 years
Leader since	2005	Leader since	2005
District	Lakemba	District	Vaucluse

The next legislative election for the New South Wales Parliament will be held on Saturday, 24 March 2007. The entire Legislative Assembly and half of the Legislative Council will be up for election.

The election will see the Australian Labor Party seek a fourth consecutive term in office, and will be the first election since both major parties changed leaders in 2005; with Morris Iemma replacing Bob Carr as Premier and Labor leader, and Peter Debnam replacing John Brogden as Leader of the Opposition and leader of the Liberal Party.

[edit] Campaign

Liberal leader Peter Debnam appears in the campaign's first TV ad, "Something is rotten".

The Liberal campaign began in November 2006 in the wake of a series of scandals involving government ministers, notably Carl Scully and Milton Orkopoulos. Opposition Leader Peter Debnam used print, television and internet media to address voters with the message that "when something is rotten to the core, there is no choice but to get rid of it." The campaign avoided mentioning the scandals specifically, but suggested that the government was distracted from the economic issues and maintaining the state's infrastructure.^[1]

[edit] Electoral System

See main article: Electoral systems of the Australian states and territories#New South Wales

The New South Wales Legislative Assembly consists of 93 members, elected in single-member electorates by optional preferential voting.

The New South Wales Legislative Council consists of 42 members, elected at large by optional preferential single transferable voting, with 21 elected at each election to serve two Legislative Assembly terms.

Terms are fixed at four years, with elections being held in late March.

[edit] Candidates

For a list of candidates, see Candidates of the New South Wales legislative election, 2007.

[edit] Opinion Polls

[edit] Preferred premier

	Preferred premier ratings
		Iemma		Debnam
Sep - Oct 2006	45%		21%
Jul - Aug 2006	48%		20%
May - Jun 2006	42%		22%
Mar - Apr 2006	42%		23%
Jan - Feb 2006	42%		22%
Nov - Dec 2005	40%		18%
Sep - Oct 2005	42%		17%
Source: Newspoll

[edit] Voting intention

The tables below list voting intentions for the 2007 election. Conducted by Roy Morgan Research and Newspoll/The Australian, the surveys asked approximately 1000 voters each month: "If a State election were being held today — which party would receive your first preference?" The table also includes the two-party preferred vote.

	New South Wales state voting intention
	Political parties					Two-party preferred
					Others/Inds
2003 Election	42.7%	24.7%	9.7%	8.2%	14.7%	56.2%	43.8%
September/October 2006	41%	32%	5%	7%	15%	54%	46%
July/August 2006	41%	31%	5%	6%	17%	55%	45%
May/June 2006	38%	33%	6%	7%	16%	52%	48%
March/April 2006	36%	38%	6%	6%	14%	48%	52%
January/February 2006	34%	36%	7%	6%	17%	49%	51%
November/December 2005	34%	37%	6%	7%	16%	48%	52%
September/October 2005	38%	33%	5%	8%	16%	53%	47%
Source: Newspoll/The Australian

	New South Wales state voting intention
	Political parties									Two-party preferred
									Others/Inds
November 2006	45.5%	34.5%	3.5%	1%	6.5%	1%	1.5%	1%	5.5%	55.5%	44.5%
October 2006	43%	35.5%	4.5%	1.5%	5.5%	0.5%	1%	1%	7.5%	53%	47%
September 2006	48%	32.5%	2%	1.5%	6.5%	1%	2%	1%	5.5%	59%	41%
August 2006	49.5%	30.5%	3.5%	1.5%	6%	0.5%	2%	0.5%	6%	60%	40%
July 2006	42.5%	37%	4%	1.5%	6.5%	1%	1.5%	1.5%	4.5%	54%	46%
June 2006	46%	32.5%	2%	7%	0.5%	1.5%	2.5%	1.5%	5%	58%	42%
May 2006	42.5%	34%	4.5%	2%	7%	1%	2%	1.5%	5.5%	55.5%	44.5%
April 2006	42.5%	35%	2.5%	2%	8.5%	1%	1.5%	0.5%	6.5%	55.5%	44.5%
March 2006	43%	36.5%	3.5%	1%	8.5%	1%	1%	1%	4.5%	54.5%	45.5%
February 2006	39%	36%	5%	1.5%	7%	1.5%	1.5%	2%	6.5%	52%	48%
January 2006	43%	32%	4.5%	1.5%	8.5%	1%	2%	1.5%	6%	56%	44%
December 2005	43.5%	32%	4%	0.5%	10.5%	1%	1.5%	1%	6%	57.5%	42.5%
November 2005	43%	33%	4%	1.5%	7.5%	1.5%	1.5%	2%	6%	55.5%	44.5%
October 2005	43.5%	33.5%	3%	1.5%	9%	1%	2%	1.5%	5%	56.5%	43.5%
September 2005	43.5%	32%	5%	1.5%	8%	1%	1.5%	~	7.5%	55.5%	44.5%
Source: Roy Morgan Research

[edit] Prospects

[edit] Legislative Assembly

Seat pendulum following the 2005 redistribution. Click here to view electoral boundaries.

The Legislative Assembly currently consists of:

55 members of the Australian Labor Party
19 members of the Liberal Party of Australia (originally 20)
12 members of The Nationals
7 independents (originally 6)

The Liberal Party lost one of its 20 seats to an independent at the Pittwater by-election in 2005. The seats for this election will follow the boundary redistribution conducted in 2005, which did not change the number of seats notionally held by each party.

A majority being 47 seats, the Labor Party must lose nine seats (a uniform swing of 8.7%) to lose its majority, and the Liberal-National coalition must gain 16 seats to gain a majority. If the Liberal-National coalition gains at least one seat from an Independent, a uniform swing of 11.6% will be sufficient. Otherwise, the necessary uniform swing will be 12.3%.

[edit] Key Seats

The following seats are notionally held by the Labor Party with a margin of less than 14%:

Tweed - 4% - Held by Neville Newell.
Monaro - 4.4% - Held by Steve Whan.
Wollondilly - 4.6% - A new seat, created out of parts of the seats of Camden, Campbelltown and Southern Highlands.
Penrith - 6.6% - Held by Karyn Paluzzano.
Port Stephens - 7.2% - Held by John Bartlett.
Kiama - 8.3% - Held by Matt Brown.
Gosford - 8.6% - The Labor-held seat of Peats has been renamed as Gosford, while the Liberal-held seat of Gosford has been renamed as Terrigal. Labor's Marie Andrews holds the seat of Peats, while the current seat of Gosford is held by Liberal member Chris Hartcher.
Camden - 8.7% - Held by Geoff Corrigan, the former Mayor of Camden, the seat was won off the Liberal Party at the 2003 election.
Drummoyne - 8.7% - Held by Angela D'Amore.
Menai - 8.9% - Held by Alison Megarrity.
Miranda - 9.1% - Held by Barry Collier.
The Entrance - 9.7% - Held by Grant McBride.
Maitland - 10.3% - Held by John Price.
Londonderry - 10.9% - Held by Allan Shearan.
Lake Macquarie - 11.6% - Held by Jeff Hunter.
Heathcote - 12.3% - Held by Paul McLeay.
Wyong - 12.3% - Held by Paul Crittenden.
Bathurst - 13.1% - Held by Gerard Martin.
Charlestown - 13.3% - Held by Matthew Morris.
Riverstone - 13.4% - Held by John Aquilina.
Coogee - 13.6% - Held by Paul Pearce.
Parramatta - 13.6% - Held by Tanya Gadiel.

The following seats are notionally held by the Liberal-National coalition with a margin of less than 5%:

Terrigal - 0.6% - A new seat, it is currently named Gosford, which is held by Liberal MP Chris Hartcher.
Murray-Darling - 1.4% - Currently held by Labor, this seat has become notionally National following the redistribution.
South Coast - 1.6% - Held by Liberal Shelley Hancock.
Lane Cove - 2.8% - Held by Liberal Anthony Roberts.
Baulkham Hills - 4.0% - Held by Liberal Wayne Merton.
Hornsby - 4.2% - Held by Liberal Judy Hopwood.
Goulburn - 4.5% - Newly created in the recent redistribution, Goulburn covers parts of Southern Highlands (Liberal) and Burrinjuck (National). This could lead to a potential conflict for electoral coverage between the coalition partners, or a three-cornered contest, which has been a past problem in the overlapping federal electorate of Hume. It is considered notionally Liberal.
Bega - 4.7% - Held by Andrew Constance.

The following Independent seats are also significant:

Dubbo - This seat was won by Dawn Fardell at the 2004 Dubbo by-election, following the death of Independent MP Tony McGrane. Following the redistribution, the margin was cut from 5% to 0.3%, meaning that this seat will be a target of the Nationals in 2007.
Manly
Tamworth
Pittwater

The following seats may see serious challenges by the Greens:

Balmain - Notional 7.1% - Held by Sandra Nori, ALP. Before the 2005 redistribution, this seat was called Port Jackson.
Marrickville - 5.6% since 2005 by-election.
Ballina.

[edit] By-elections

There have been six by-elections during the current term of the Legislative Assembly:

Londonderry, 2003 - Held following the death of Labor MP Jim Anderson on the morning of the 2003 election. Retained by Labor.
Dubbo, 2004 - Held following the death of Independent MP Tony McGrane. Won by Independent candidate Dawn Fardell against the Nationals. No Labor candidate.
Maroubra, 2005 - Held following the retirement of Premier Bob Carr. No Liberal candidate contested the by-election, with the seat being retained by the ALP.
Marrickville, 2005 - Held following the retirement of Deputy Premier Andrew Refshauge. The contest was between Labor's Education Minister Carmel Tebbutt and the Greens' Deputy Mayor Sam Byrne. Labor retained the seat with 55% of the two-party-preferred vote.
Macquarie Fields, 2005 - Held following the retirement of Labor's Craig Knowles. Won by local councillor Steven Chaytor (Labor), against former whistleblower nurse Nola Fraser (Liberal).
Pittwater, 2005 - Held following the resignation of Liberal leader John Brogden. Won by independent Mayor Alex McTaggart, against Liberal candidate Paul Nicolaou.

[edit] Legislative Council

The New South Wales Legislative Council is not elected in one general election. Rather, half the house is elected at each general election. Those Members of the Legislative Council elected at the 1999 election, and those who have been elected to fill vacancies from members elected in 1999, will vacate their seats at the 2007 election.

At the 1999 election, 8 Labor MLCs were elected, along with 4 Liberals, 2 Nationals, and one each from the Greens, Christian Democratic Party (CDP), Australian Democrats, Unity, the Outdoor Recreation Party, One Nation and Reform the Legal System.

At the 2003 election, the following parties won seats:

10 Labor
5 Liberal
2 National
2 Greens
1 CDP (Fred Nile)
1 Shooters Party (John Tingle}

[edit] Major Parties

A quota for the Legislative Council is roughly 4.5% of the vote. According to recent opinion polls, the absolute minimum number of MLCs elected by each major party (the Liberals and Nationals running a single ticket in Legislative Council elections) would be 7 each, adding up to 31.5% in quotas. While it is difficult to predict the number of seats won by each party, recent polls indicate the Liberal-National coalition would gain seats. The lowest result in 2005 opinion polls for the Coalition, conducted at the same time as the resignation of Liberal leader John Brogden and the election of his successor, gave the Coalition 38% of the vote, which would give them a likely 9 MLCs, three more than their current complement.

With a very low number of major party MLCs elected in 1999, it does not necessarily follow that the Labor Party must lose seats if the Coalition gains seats. At its lowest point in polls, the Labor Party only stands to lose one seat, and could quite easily retain its 8 seats while suffering a swing against it, compared to the 2003 result.

[edit] Minor Parties

The 1999 election saw a number of small parties win a single seat in the Legislative Council, with seven parties winning one seat each. With the exception of the Greens and the Christian Democrats, none of those parties were able to repeat that success in 2003, following the introduction of a new electoral system which made it more difficult for small parties to win seats.

The Outdoor Recreation Party, Unity Party, and Reform the Legal System have not shown any chances of retaining their seats, not running in the 2003 election, whilst One Nation NSW (the breakaway party led by NSW MLC David Oldfield) and the Democrats have lost most of their party organisation and electoral support in recent years, and are unlikely to retain their seats.

The Greens, who have generally polled 7-8% in opinion polls, will almost certainly retain their seat, currently held by Lee Rhiannon, and are likely to gain a second seat. As the only minor party to poll more than a single quota, there is potential for the Greens to win three seats, which could be achieved with as little as 11.5% of the vote.

The Christian Democratic Party's leader, Fred Nile, is up for re-election in 2007, and will likely win re-election. Rev. Nile resigned from the Legislative Council in 2004 to contest a seat in the Australian Senate, and was re-appointed to his seat following his Senate defeat. Winning 3% in 2003, and 2.6% in the 2004 federal election, the CDP is likely to retain their seat in 2007. The CDP vote is also likely to be bolstered and more concentrated by the decision of the Family First Party not to run cadidates in the election [1].