Wikipedia:Modelling Wikipedia's growth/Previous traffic predictions

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This page lists the predictions of Wikipedia's Alexa traffic rating. Remember that lower is better.

Image:Alexatraffic.png

Alexa traffic by month, calculated by taking the average ranking for each month and using polynomial curve of best fit.

[edit] Current predictions (5/27/04):

Formula: y = 25921.322x^-1.1811674

• Predicted average ranking for the month of January 2005: 528
• Predicted average ranking for the month of June 2005: 432
• Predicted average ranking for the month of January 2010: 133
• Predicted date when Wikipedia will be the #1 site on the web: October 15, 2458

[edit] At 5/1/04:

Formula: y = 25606.832x^-1.1722163

• Predicted average ranking for the month of January 2005: 538
• Predicted average ranking for the month of June 2005: 441
• Predicted average ranking for the month of January 2010: 135
• Predicted date when Wikipedia will be the #1 site on the web: August 2484

All data on this page is taken from the Awareness Statistics page.