Kissimmee Tornado Outbreak

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The Kissimmee Tornado Outbreak of February 22 - 23, 1998 was the deadliest tornado event in Florida history. Forty-two people were killed and 260 were injured; seven tornadoes were involved in the event. The previous record for the highest tornado death toll in Florida history was 17 on March 31, 1962.

The first tornado of the outbreak came at around 11:40 P.M. in Lake County, Florida. Three were killed in this tornado. The most notable tornado of the night hit in Kissimmee. Twenty-five were killed. It was an F3. Another F3 hit in Seminole County, Florida near Sanford and Volusia County, Florida killing 13. The last tornado of the night hit in Brevard County, Florida.

The tornadoes were strong due to an abnormally strong jet stream with warm, humid air out ahead of the cold front. This is common in the El Niño phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)during the Florida dry season (November 1 - April 30)[1]. During EL Nino the jet stream is typically stronger and further south near or over Florida in the winter and spring. This greatly increases the odds that conditions will be favorable for strong tornado development.[2]. The controversy surround this outbreak resulted from attempts to try to correlate specific tornadoes with El Nino. There are a number of reasons why a tornado may or may not occur, or be reported, that have nothing to do with Pacific SST's. A better approach is to focus on the development of atmospheric conditions that might produce tornadoes and severe weather. [3]. A novel approach to enhancing El Nino preparedness in Florida is to concentrate on "Storminess" or the increase in extratropical cyclones effecting Florida that might spawn severe weather in El Nino dry seasons. [4] An experimental forecast of Florida storminess based on Pacific SST's has been developed. [5] Not surprising, studies that look at yearly tornado reports and Pacific SST's show no relationship between El Niño and United States tornado activity and a weak relationship for Florida. [6]