James Chowning Davies
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James Chowning Davies (b. 1918) is an American sociologist and professor emeritus of political science at the University of Oregon. Davies is perhaps best known for his so-called "J-curve" theory of political revolutions, which seeks to explain the rise of revolutionary movements in terms of rising individual expectations and falling levels of perceived well-being.
Davies asserts that revolutions are a subjective response to a sudden reversal in fortunes after a long period of economic growth. The theory is often applied to explain social unrest and efforts by governments to contain this unrest. This is referred to as the Davies' J-Curve, because economic development followed by a depression would be modelled as an upside down and slightly skewed J.
[edit] Quote
"Revolutions are most likely to occur when a prolonged period of objective economic and social development is followed by a short period of sharp reversal. People then subjectively fear that ground gained with great effort will be quite lost; their mood becomes revolutionary. The evidence from Dorr's Rebellion, the Russian Revolution, and the Egyptian Revolution supports this notion; tentatively, so do data on other civil disturbances. Various statistics--as on rural uprisings, industrial strikes, unemployment, and cost of living--may serve as crude indexes of popular mood. More useful, though less easy to obtain, are direct questions in cross-sectional interviews. The goal of predicting revolution is conceived but not yet born or matured."
(From the abstract of J. C. Davies: "Toward a theory of revolution" American Sociological Review 27(1962):5-19, available via JSTOR, see also Citation Classics review)
[edit] Bibliography
- When Men Revolt and Why - A Reader in Political Violence and Revolution (The Free Press, 1971)
- Human Nature in Politics - The Dynamics of Political Behavior (Wiley, 1963)
