Intermittent Power Sources
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Intermittent power sources are sources of power generation, primarily electricity, whose power output is normally either variable or intermittent. All power sources are intermittent in the sense that they can all fail or are taken off line for maintenance, so back-up generation has to be available for all generation types, including nuclear, large fossil-fuel thermal or renewables.
If the operator has a high degree of confidence of being able to increase or reduce power output whenever required by a central dispatcher, then the power is said to be dispatchable and this would apply to many conventional sources, particularly fossil and hydro.
Many sources of renewable energy are not dispatchable in this sense and are considered intermittent, although a better description is variable, such as wind and solar energy. Since demand and supply of electricity must be balanced at all times to maintain grid stability, the variable output of large proportions of intermittent/ variable power sources may require technical and other solutions. The cost of these solutions will influence the mix of power sources in a given grid. Proponents of the large scale use of intermittent and variable sources claim that these challenges can be dealt with at reasonable cost by application of a range of techniques, including the use of dispatchable plant.
Solutions for managing mismatches between demand and supply exist in all managed grids, and include supply management (increasing or decreasing energy output from grid-connected plants) and demand management (increasing or decreasing demand, which may include load shedding, demand management or energy storage for later use).
Intermittency is most properly used to refer to power output that may go off-line entirely at various times: that is, the power output states have a binary or on-off nature. Variable power sources may show substantial differences in output, but generally would not "trip" on or off in extremely short periods of time (particularly with greater geographical spread or distribution); in this sense, intermittent power sources may be reliable but highly variable. Throughout this article, the two terms intermittency and variability are generally used interchangeably, as intermittency has become the most commonly used term to describe this issue.
This article concentrates on sources of electricity generation that are not generally considered dispatchable, that is, whose energy output are primarily dependent on exogenous elements beyond the control of operators.
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[edit] Intermittency and renewable energy
Intermittency strongly affects many sources of renewable energy, as they are dependent on natural processes that are to some degree unpredictable. The timeframe under consideration is significant and affects the degree to which the problem is considered relevant, however. For example, biomass renewables are dependent on solar energy and weather conditions, but the timeframe is substantially longer; in addition, biomass itself represents a form of energy storage, and the decision of when to utilize the stored energy is to some degree controllable.
Two forms of intermittent renewable energy, wind and solar electricity generation, present the most significant challenges due to the timeframe of changes in generation and the limited correlation with demand cycles. Both can vary greatly throughout the course of a diurnal cycle, and may also be subject to substantial seasonal variation. In addition, day-to-day power generation may vary significantly (due to prevailing winds or cloud cover) with limited predictability. Similarly, the ability of operators to control output for both is generally limited to curtailment: power output can be decreased, but generally not increased at will. Curtailment of output is a common feature in electrical grids and for wind and solar installations, but reducing power sold to the grid may substantially affect project economics. Proponents of high penetrations of variable sources argue that a new operating philosophy will be required whereby dispatchable sources are curtailed or advanced in line with the variable output of the intermittent sources, and that this has an inherently low cost.
Hydropower can be both intermittent or dispatchable, depending on the configuration of physical plant. Typical hydroelectric plants in the dam configuration may have substantial storage capacity, and be considered dispatchable. Run of the river hydroelectric generation will typically have limited or no storage capacity, and be intermittent on a seasonal or annual basis (dependent on rainfall and other factors). Hydroelectric dams have limits to dispatchability, since storage is finite and there are often environmental and regulatory requirements that detail minimum and maximum release into the water system. Hydrostorage is also used in many locations to manage supply and demand, but true hydrostorage is not an energy source: it is a mechanism used to store excess generating capacity for use during times of greater demand.
[edit] Intermittency: wind energy
Wind-generated power is a variable resource, and the amount of wind-generated electricity produced at any given point in time by a given plant will depend on wind speeds and turbine characteristics (among other things). While the output from a single turbine can vary greatly and rapidly, as more turbines are connected over larger area, the slower the aggregate rate of change becomes. As compared to many other types of electricity generation, wind is not dispatchable - it cannot be turned on or off at will by human or automatic dispatch. Variability may be a more accurate term to describe wind's generation profile than intermittency, which may imply an alternating presence or absence (generation that is either on or off). In discussions of the pros and cons of wind power, the issue of variable power output may be termed intermittency or variability without distinction between the two terms.
As wind energy installations grow in absolute terms and as a proportion of existing output, critics have raised concerns about integrating wind energy into existing grids due to the variability of power output from wind. In combination with the output profile of existing power plants, concern has been expressed about the extent to which wind can be relied upon for output during periods of high demand, sometimes referred to as its base capacity factor. Proponents claim this is a misstatement or misunderstanding of the windpower case, which assumes little capacity benefit, and argue that the main economic benefit comes from fuel displacement rather than capacity replacement (overall energy output versus replacement of peak generating output).
The annual capacity factor is the average output over a year divided by the turbine's nameplate capacity. The base capacity factor is primarily a function of the statistically reliable output of wind during the period of peak demand in a given area, as these are the times when the capacity to meet demand without threatening grid stability or shortages will be most critical.
Critics also argue that the economics of wind energy may also be challenged when wind production is high at times of low demand. Due to the presence of other generating stations that are operated as base load (run as close to continuously as possible) or have minimum operating cycles, at high penetrations wind plants may contribute to the grid producing energy "surplus" to requirements at times of low demand. As with other generating plant, wind energy output may on occasion need to be curtailed, energy stored for later use, or load increased to compensate. While all of these solutions are commonly used to manage grids, wind "spilt" or curtailed generates no revenue, and prices for supply to the grid may be lower at times of high output, both of which could make wind farms less profitable. Energy storage used to arbitrage between periods of low and high demand may be capital intensive and always incurs some efficiency losses.
Proponents argue that in fact since large plant can and is routinely cycled, conventional dispatchable plant will curtail output rather than wind plant; all conventional powerplants have limits to the extent to which they can be cycled up and down and over different time periods. Surplus power can also be sold to neighbouring grids and re-imported at times of shortfall, although import and export capacity may be limited.
Both shortfalls and surpluses of supply attributable to wind energy's variability will be less frequent at lower penetration levels. At low to medium levels of penetration (up to 15%), incremental regulation and operational reserve requirements are generally marginal, and demands for reduced supply (curtailment) infrequent. At lower levels (less than 5%), wind may simply be treated as "negative load" in the larger system. Very few grids have wind energy penetration above these levels. Some studies have considered penetration above these levels: a Minnesota study[1] considered penetration of up to 25%, and concluded that integration issues would be manageable and have incremental costs of less than one-half cent ($0.0045) per kWh. The specific costs and issues will vary from region to region.
While intermittency can substantially and negatively affect the economics of power generation using such sources, many intermittent and variable resources are highly reliable in the sense that they are less prone to large, single-source failures, as distributed generation provides "smoothing" of the rate of change.
[edit] Penetration
Penetration of wind power refers to the proportion of wind power production to total system capacity. There is no standard measure of this proportion. Penetration is most frequently cited in terms of nameplate (nominal maximum) capacity of wind to peak demand, generally uncorrected for actual production. Penetration may also be referred to as a percentage of annual production (or demand), which takes into account the actual or expected output of electricity; actual production is always lower than nominal capacity and is dependent on actual wind conditions, maintenance, and other factors. A related concept is capacity contribution: the percentage of total wind nameplate capacity that can be statistically relied upon to be available during periods of peak demand (and hence may be used in planning purposes for periods of peak demand).
At high penetrations, the expected peak production of wind-generated electricity may be more important; while there is no generally accepted measure of the relevant proportion, measures may include expected peak wind output minus firm export capacity over minimum demand levels (and possibly corrected for minimum base-load generation that cannot be economically shut down, such as nuclear). All of these figures should be treated and used with caution, as the relevance or significance (or any implied limits) will be highly dependent on local factors, grid structure and management, and existing generation capacity.
- As the fraction of energy produced by wind ("penetration") increases, different technical and economic factors affect the need for grid energy storage facilities, demand side management, and/or other management of system load. Large networks, connected to multiple wind plants at widely separated geographic locations, may accept a higher penetration of wind than small networks or those without storage systems or economical methods of compensating for the variability of wind. In systems with significant amounts of existing pumped storage, hydropower or other peaking power plants, such as natural gas-fired power plants, this proportion may be higher. Isolated, relatively small systems with only a few wind plants may only be stable and economic with a lower fraction of wind energy (e.g. Ireland).
- In jurisdictions where the price paid to producers for electricity is based on market mechanisms, revenue for all producers per unit is higher when they produce when prices are higher. The profitability of wind farms will therefore be higher if their production schedule coincides with these periods (generally, high demand / low supply situations). If wind represents a significant portion of supply and wind farm output is highly correlated, overall revenues would be lower. In economic terms, the marginal revenue of the wind sector as penetration increases may diminish.
- Depending on the profile of other generation, strong wind generation at times of low demand may result in an excess of supply, which can harm grid stability, as certain generation types are not maneuverable. If mechanisms to export, store or otherwise divert this energy do not exist or are insufficient, wind turbines may have to curtail their output (for example, by changing the pitch of the turbine blades). This is a normal operating procedure that can be handled by turbine operators and control software. It reduces, however, the revenue generated by the wind plant and will affect the economic viability of wind production. Some jurisdictions - notably Germany - require grid operators to purchase from renewable sources first. In other cases, grid pricing procedures may allow for nil or negative prices, providing incentives to market participants to curtail production or increase load (for example, for storage). Excess supply events which may require curtailment can be expected to increase with wind penetration, which may also encourage the development of storage solutions.
- Although penetration is generally stated in terms of nameplate capacity (peak output) over peak demand, at higher penetrations of wind generation, penetration may be better measured as peak wind output over low demand plus export and storage may be more relevant[2]. Variations on this approach may more accurately capture the likelihood of "excess" supply during periods of high wind output, and the ability of the system to economically absorb additional wind. There remain no generally-accepted levels of maximum penetration, however.
- On most large power systems a moderate proportion of wind generation can be connected without the need for storage. For larger proportions, storage may be economically attractive or even technically necessary. The profile of other generation facilities in the system (nuclear, coal, natural gas, hydro, etc.) will also influence the potential need for storage. At present, there are few large systems (for example, at the national or regional level) with sufficiently high wind generation to drive demand for storage (or other solutions, such as export, have been more economical), and discussion of the issue and potential upper limits for wind penetration remain largely hypothetical.
- Electricity demand is variable but generally very predictable on larger grids; errors in demand forecasting are typically no more than 2% in the minutes-hours-day ahead timeframe. Depending on the demand profile and location, local weather conditions - particularly temperature - may be the primary driver of demand, and the sensitivity of demand to prediction errors may be well understood. Wind energy production can also be forecast, but there is considerably less experience predicting wind speeds, and the time frame of forecasts and sensitivity factors less well understood. At present, error rates for predicting wind production at important timeframes for grid operators (hours and day-ahead) are significantly higher than for predicting demand.
- The maximum proportion of wind power allowable in a power system will thus depend on many factors, including the size of the system, the attainable geographical diversity of wind, the conventional plant mix (coal, gas, nuclear, hydroelectric) and seasonal load factors (heating in winter, air-conditioning in summer) and their statistical correlation with wind output. For most large systems the allowable penetration fraction (wind nameplate rating divided by system peak demand) is thus at least 15% without the need for any energy storage whatsoever. Note that the interconnected electrical system may be much larger than the particular country or state (e.g. Denmark, California) being considered. A study published in October, 2006, by the Ontario Independent Electric System Operator (IESO) found that "there would be minimal system operation impacts for levels of wind capacity up to 5,000 megawatts (MW)," which corresponds to 17% of projected peak load (nameplate wind capacity over peak load); at the time of publication, Ontario had only 300 MW of installed wind capacity.[1] While there are both practical and theoretical upper limits (as with any type of electric power generation), these upper limits are frequently many times higher than existing installed capacity.
- The variability of wind can raise costs for regulation and incremental operational reserve. At high penetrations of wind (greater than 30%, depending on a number of factors), storage may become necessary and/or demand management employed; additional storage would likely raise costs for the additional wind energy capacity. Effective demand management would lower the need for peaking power during demand spikes, and reduce the reserve required.
- Wind power generation tends to be higher in the winter and at night (due to higher air density), so the appropriateness of wind power in high concentrations may crucially depend on the prevalence of air conditioning in a given jurisdiction. Wind power may be weakest in the hot summer months, and particularly during the day when air conditioning demand is highest. Conversely, systems where heat is electrical may be well-suited to higher penetration of wind power. Daily generation profiles may vary substantially in different locations.
[edit] Geographic diversity
The variability of production from a single wind turbine can be high. Combining any additional number of turbines (for example, in a wind farm) results in lower statistical variation, as long as the correlation between the output of each turbine is imperfect, and the correlations are always imperfect due to the distance between each turbine. Similarly, geographically distant wind turbines or wind farms have lower correlations, reducing overall variability considerably. Since wind power is dependent on weather systems, there is a limit to the benefit of this geographic diversity for any power system with limited compensation capacity.
- While wind power is variable, it is reliable in the sense that simultaneous failure of a large number of units (and the associated loss of generation capacity) is unlikely. It is highly improbable that a large number of wind turbines could fail simultaneously; concentrated transmission systems may be more likely points of failure. With distance between individual turbines and wind farms, rates of change will be reduced due to statistical smoothing compared to individual units. This should be contrasted with large single-source generators (nuclear, fossil, or other), which can go off-line in short periods of time; all power systems incorporate some reserve to compensate for such "single-source" losses of generating capacity.
- Multiple wind farms spread over a wide geographic area and gridded together produce power more constantly and with less variability than smaller installations. Wind output can be predicted with some degree of confidence using weather forecasts, especially from large numbers of turbines/farms. The ability to predict wind output is expected to increase over time as data is collected, especially from newer facilities.
[edit] Compensating for variability
As noted, all sources of electrical power have some degree of unpredictability, and demand patterns (while relatively predictable) routinely drive large swings in the amount of electricity that suppliers feed into the grid. Wherever possible, grid operations procedures are designed to match supply with demand at high levels of reliability, and the tools to influence supply and demand in response to conditions are well-developed. The introduction of a power source in large amounts, however, that has a random element, relatively large differences between peak and trough output, and that may not be well-matched to demand cycles may require substantial changes to existing procedures and additional investments.
[edit] Operational reserve & peak demand reduction
At times of high or increasing demand where wind output may simultaneously be falling, a number of solutions are either commonly used today or potentially feasible.
- Because conventional powerplants can drop off the grid within a few seconds, for example due to equipment failures, in most systems the output of some coal or gas powerplants is intentionally part-loaded to follow demand and to replace rapidly lost generation. The ability to follow demand (by maintaining constant frequency) is termed "response." The ability to quickly replace lost generation, typically within timescales of 30 seconds to 30 minutes, is termed "spinning reserve." Nuclear power plants in contrast are not very flexible and are not intentionally part-loaded. A power plant that operates in a steady fashion, usually for many days continuously, is termed a "base load" plant. Generally thermal plants running as "peaking" plants will be less efficient than if they were running as base load. Hydroelectric facilities with storage capacity (such as the traditional dam configuration) may be operated as base load or peaking plants, and complement high levels of wind penetration.
- In practice, as the power output from wind varies, part-loaded conventional plants, which must be there anyway to provide response (due to continuously changing demand) and reserve, adjust their output to compensate; they do this in response to small changes in the frequency (nominally 50 or 60 Hz) of the grid. In this sense wind acts like "negative" load or demand.
- Energy Demand Management or Demand-Side Management refers to the use of communication and switching devices which can release deferrable loads quickly, or absorb additional energy to correct supply/demand imbalances. Incentives can be created for the use of these systems, such as favorable rates or capital cost assistance, encouraging consumers with large loads to take advantage of renewable energy by adjusting their loads to coincide with resource availability. For example, pumping water to pressurize municipal water systems is an electricity intensive application that can be performed when electricity is available.[2] Real-time variable electricity pricing can encourage all users to reduce usage when the renewable sources happen to be at low production.
[edit] Storage and demand loading
At times of low or falling demand where wind output may be high or increasing, grid stability may require lowering the output of various generating sources or even increasing demand, possibly by using energy storage to time-shift output to times of higher demand. Such mechanisms can include:
- Long-term storage of electrical energy involves substantial capital costs, space for storage facilities, and some portion of the stored power will be lost during conversion and transmission. The percentage retrievable from stored power is called the "efficiency of storage." The cost of compensating for the variability of wind has been studied extensively at low to medium penetrations, but would be expected to rise with higher penetration levels; the increase in costs with significantly higher penetration may be non-linear as the variability becomes more significant at higher levels, and particularly if storage needs to be purpose-built for wind.See: Grid energy storage
- The allowable penetration may be further increased by increasing the amount of part-loaded generation available. Systems with existing high levels of hydroelectric generation may be able to incorporate substantial amounts of wind, although high hydro penetration may indicate that hydro is already a low-cost source of electricity; Norway, Quebec, and Manitoba all have high levels of existing hydroelectric generation (Quebec produces over 90% of its electricity from hydropower, and the local utility, Hydro Quebec, is the largest single hydropower producer in the world). Storage capacity in hydropower facilities will be limited by size of reservoir, and environmental and other considerations.
- Existing European hydroelectric power plants can store enough energy to supply one month's worth of European electricity consumption. Improvement of the international grid would allow using this in the relatively short term at low cost, as a matching variable complementary source to wind power. Excess wind power could even be used to pump water up into collection basins for later use. In practice, Denmark's system is well-integrated with the hydro-electric dominated Norwegian system, and Norwegian hydropower is used to balance fluctuations and shortfalls in Denmark; on occasion, Denmark exports electricity to Norway when generation is higher than demand (thereby increasing stored hydropower). Increased wind penetration may raise the value of existing peaking or storage facilities and particularly hydroelectric plants, as their ability to compensate for wind's variability will be under greater demand.
- In energy schemes with a high penetration of wind energy, secondary loads, such as desalination plants and electric boilers, may be encouraged because their output (water and heat) can be stored. The utilization of "burst electricity", where excess electricity is used on windy days for opportunistic purposes greatly improves the economic efficiency of wind turbine schemes. An ice storage device has been invented which allows cooling energy to be consumed during resource availability, and dispatched as air conditioning during peak hours. Various other potential applications are being considered, such as charging plug-in electric vehicles during periods of low demand and high production; at present, the scale at which such technologies are employed is relatively low.
[edit] Complementary power sources and matching demand
- Electricity produced from solar energy could be a counter balance to the fluctuating supplies generated from wind. In some locations, it tends to be windier at night and during cloudy or stormy weather, so there is likely to be more sunshine when there is less wind.
- In some locations, electricity demand may have a high correlation with wind output, particularly in locations where cold temperatures drive electric consumption (as cold air is denser and carries more energy).
[edit] Export & import arrangements with neighboring systems
- It is often feasible to export energy to neighboring grids at times of surplus, and import energy when needed. This practice is common in Western Europe and North America.
- This linking of systems means that the relevant "penetration area" for wind systems may be considerably larger than the political entity or grid operator's area, making penetration for wind even less an issue. Denmark's 20% penetration, in the context of the German/Dutch/Scandinavian grids with which it has interconnections, is considerably lower as a proportion of the total system.
- Since correlation between wind turbine outputs decreases with distance, the integration of grids may decrease the overall variability, as long as the wind turbines themselves are located at a considerable distance and not in the same weather system. Germany's wind farms are predominantly located in the north of the country, reducing the value of the distance benefit due to the proximity to Denmark.
- If neighboring grids both have significantly high levels of wind generation, and correlations between turbines are greater than zero, the likelihood that both will experience periods of high or low wind output at the same time may reduce the value of export/import arrangements, and also depend on the generation profile of other sources.
- Transmission capacity for export may have to be substantially upgraded, which may be expensive. Substantial transmission upgrades are already required within many countries, in some cases partly due to plans to significantly increase wind capacity.
- Ultimately, the ability to export at will presupposes the presence of sufficient demand in the export market at prices sufficient to justify the investment in wind capacity and any additional transmission capacity required. At small and moderate penetration levels this may be a reasonable assumption, but at very high penetration levels will need to be demonstrated in practice.
[edit] Maximum Penetration Limits
However, there is no overwhelming technical or economic reason why interlinked national grids could not have close to 100% of annual delivered energy generated from wind turbines for probably around 10% extra on the cost of a present domestic unit.
This is because:
1. The source of power generation for the few hours or days every year of no wind generation, can be provided by retaining the existing power stations which are already built and largely paid for, and starting them up as required. They can also be used to "fill in" missing power when load exceeds the aggregate windfarms output. The cost of using existing power stations in this way is surprisingly low since 96% of running a power station is the fuel cost. The actual cost of paying to keep a power station idle, but useable at short notice, can be readily calculated from published spark spreads and dark spreads.
2. The aggregate maximum rate of change of generation from a close to 100% wind scenario,in the UK (which would necessarily be comprised of geographically dispersed wind farms), is well under the already existing rate of change of total generation due to unscheduled power station outages, or the unexpected rate of change of demand that existing large grid and power station systems are presently already required to routinely deal with. Such maximum rate of change in the UK is typically the simultaneous loss of two of the largest generating units on the system i.e., 2 x 660 MW = 1.32 GW, in fact Sizewell B( with additional reserve stations to cover the the closure due to a type fault of 3 more units). This maximum rate of sudden change always exceeds the rate of change of any sudden load pick up at eg the end of a popular tv program. These load pick ups can be bigger - 3 GW in overall magnitude but happen more slowly.
• http://www.eci.ox.ac.uk/publications/downloads/sinden05-dtiwindreport.pdf for detailed study of UK wind regime and its actual variability for geographically separated wind farms looked at over 30 years.
3. The aggregate rate of change of output of such a close to 100% wind scenario is also much slower than the rate at which power stations can be warmed / started and and ramped up, and successive short term weather forecasts (from 12 hours for an initial forecast to 5 minutes for final balancing are sufficiently good to have the right amount of available but not running plant, warming plant and spinning reserve plant always available to cover for any likely sudden change in aggregate wind generation. The bigger the interconnected grid - say going from UK only to European level the more this slowness of rate of change applies. The constant 12 hour forecasting and short term (5 minute, 1 minute) adjustment is no more than what happens at present in the control room of in any interconnected grid operator.
4. Automatic load shedding of large industrial loads and its subsequent automatic reconnection is well established and routine in the UK and US grids at least, and in the UK these are known as Frequency Service contractors. They are under contract and receive a fee proportional to the capacity they disconnect, typically £7k per MW per annum. Several GW are switched off and on each month in the UK in this way.
Operating hand in hand with the above Frequency Service contractors are Reserve Service contractors who offer fast reponse gas turbines and even faster diesels again this is also already widely used in the UK, France and US to control grid stability. This combination of Reserve Service and Frequency Service enables much lower levels of the more expensive spinning reserve (ie innefficient part loaded stations) to cope with the largest sources of existing intermittency which is the power stations themselves, and which intermittency would still remain the largest even in a close to 100% wind scenario. To achieve this effect the load shedding and diesels only have to be operated a few hours each month.
These systems can be readily and cheaply extended although in the UK it is hard to see why they would need much extension. (because the rates of change caused by power station failure at present exceed anything a 100% wind scenario would imply)
In a close to 100% wind scenario, surplus wind power can be catered for by increasing the levels of the existing Reserve and Frequency Service schemes whereby a rise in system frequency would automaticaly connect loads, and disconnect them later, and by extending the scheme to more domestic sized loads. This means energy can either be stored by advancing deferable domestic loads such as storage heaters, water heaters, fridge motors, or even hydrogen production. Just as automatic systems already exist to achieve this at an industrial level, they also exist at a domestic level.
Alternatively or additionally, power can be exported to neighboring grids and re-imported later. EHVDC cables are now extremely cheap and efficient (3% loss per 1000km)- Holland is just building one 500 km link to connect it to Norway. The longest presently is 1500 km. Central Germany has been connected to Norway's hydro since the mid 70's. UK is connected to Europe via a 2 GW link and to Ireland. There are numerous well advanced plans for other inter-continental connections of several thousand km.
It can be shown that the increased cost of a close to 100% wind scenario covering increased back up for windless days, reserve, transmission and balancing costs is likely to be about an extra 10% on the price of a delivered unit to the customer.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Grid_UK#Triads How TRIADS can be used to estimate the increase in costs for installing close 100% wind scenario.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spark_spread#Spark_Spread_as_cost_of_back_up Wikipedia for how to calculated the cost of back up from published Spark and Dark Spreads.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/How_the_UK_National_Grid_is_presently_controlled Wikipedia article for how large national grids are actually controlled, in detail, and which estimates the costs mentioned above.
This 10% figure ignores the potential cost of the domestic scale Reserve and Frequency Service extesion and any transnational cables
There will be other costs, over and above the 10% estimate presented here, associated with short term storage (such as switchable off peak space and water heaters) and export and re-import costs via inter-country cables, but since sufficient of these methods were provided to cover the increase in nuclear in the UK in the 60s (30% of the then total capacity) i.e., the construction of the 2 GW Dinorwig and FFestiniog pumped storage, the introduction of 5m homes with off peak heating it is hard to see why these costs should impact significantly on the overall economics of 100% wind, anymore than they did with nuclear. This kind of load switching is already widely used in New Zealand to control domestic water heaters to flex load. These type of measures in any case tend to be self financing due to the savings from load smoothing, and the resultant cut in peak capacity and back up of conventional plant.
http://www.enermet.com/en/load_management/ripplecontrol.php
It goes without saying, that there would be no point to replacing existing hydro facilities with wind.
[edit] Intermittency: solar energy
Intermittency inherently affects solar energy, as the production of electricity from solar sources depends on the amount of light energy in a given location. At current penetration levels, solar energy presents few issues for integration into existing electricity grids, and discussion of potential issues is highly theoretical.
In principal, electric grids with high proportions of solar energy will also suffer from intermittency: electricity produced is not dispatchable and cannot be increased on demand.
The extent to which the intermittency of solar-generated electricity is an issue will also depend on the degree to which the generation profile of solar corresponds to demand cycles. In locales where air conditioning is a driver of demand and corresponds to periods of high sunlight, the intermittency may be less problematic. This may also correspond to locations with high solar production possibilities.
