Talk:Hubbert peak theory

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Contents

[edit] Archives

to 18:14, 28 Oct 2004 (UTC)

to 11:43, 26 Jan 2005 (UTC) -Jwanders 23:48, 26 Jan 2005 (UTC)

to 14:51, August 31, 2005 (UTC) - Taxman Talk 14:51, August 31, 2005 (UTC)

to 02:11, 28 November 2005 (UTC) --HereToHelp (talk) 02:11, 28 November 2005 (UTC)

to 00:59, 17 June 2006 (UTC) Ideogram 00:59, 17 June 2006 (UTC)

to 09:34, 28 September 2006 (UTC) Lesqual 13:36, 28 September 2006 (UTC)

[edit] Critique of Critiques

I must take an issue with the way Campbell and ASPO are described. The section makes it appear as if they are just making random forecasts and then try and hide it. There is no way Campbell could have predicted the rapid rise in Russian oil production, a result of political rather than geological factors that did influence production rates but may not influence URR. As he got new data he revised his forecasts acordingly. I must also ask why a man like Freddy Hutter is featured so prominently. There is nothing to suggest he has any education of any kind that enables him to make predictions about peak oil.

I will therefore delete all references to Hutter and ask that whoever may reverse my edits at least give some justification of why he should be mentioned here.

[edit] Yet another new oil technology

http://www.imra.org.il/story.php3?id=31531

"Israel to produce synthetic oil from low quality shale at $17 "

"Shahal estimated that the company's Negev Desert facility would begin full-scale production in three to four years, while other countries with oil shale deposits will need five to six years to reach production.

Oil shale is limestone rock that contains hydrocarbons, or fossil fuels -- about 20 percent of the amount of energy found in coal. Using the rock as a raw material and coating it with bitumen, a residue of the crude oil refining process, the company can produce natural gas, fuel, electricity, or a combination of the three.

Older technologies squeezed the hydrocarbon material out of the rock, with extremely high pressure and at high temperatures. According to Professor Ze'ev Aizenshtat, an oil shale expert, the Hom Tov process is more environmentally friendly than other /methods of converting oil shale into energy. It also allows for more flexibility in the kind of fuel produced, produces less waste and operates at lower temperatures than other methods.

Though the production process may be more environmentally friendly, the end product is still a fossil fuel, similar in quality to a high-grade diesel when in liquid form."

New addtions to the talk page are placed on the bottom, not the top.
New technologies such as this are frequently touted, but most often do not pan out. I'll wait until it has been demonstrated successfully until giving it any weight. Skyemoor 12:10, 19 November 2006 (UTC)

[edit] New CERA report (2006)

Peak Oil Theory faulty: CERA report KurzweilAI.net Nov. 16, 2006 In contrast to a widely discussed theory that world oil production will soon reach a peak and go into sharp decline, a new report by Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA) finds that the remaining global oil resource base is actually 3.74 trillion barrels -- three times as large as the 1.2 trillion barrels estimated by the theory's proponents... http://www.kurzweilai.net/email/newsRedirect.html?newsID=6095&m=12472


- Yeah, but that report bases the 3.74 trillion barrel estimate on the ability to extract oil shale and sand oil, both of which are currently not worth the return on energy invested into the extraction process. duh.

[edit] Economic Impact

"It is unlikely that the actual peak in global oil production will be a direct catalyst of global economic decline. Instead, economic turbulence could be precipitated by the realization of the financial and investment world that "peak oil" (and natural gas) is either imminent or has already occurred."

Not exactly sure what this means, but it seems to imply that if the financial and investment world understand that peak is happening or has happened that they will obviate any economic decline. This has no cite and is contradicted by the relevant studies (Hirsch, etc), but I'll listen to rationale before revertingSkyemoor 20:51, 29 September 2006 (UTC).

Our Implications section is too vague. Sustained slowing in the growth of oil finds and higher prices are already causing more of a reaction than this section discusses. This section should read more like a laundry list of implications.70.231.243.229 13:01, 30 September 2006 (UTC)

[edit] Oil Prices due to unstable oil producing countries?

This may be a sign of increasing demand having started to outstrip supply or it may just be that the various geopolitical forces in t"he regions where oil is produced are limiting the available supply. One other explanation for the rising oil prices is that it has been a sign of too much paper money and not too little oil. In this view, dramatically higher prices of all commodities and real estate indicates rising inflation. Political instability in oil producing nations has also been claimed to be increasing oil prices. Significant or potentially significant oil exporting nations suffering from social upheaval or war include Sudan, Iraq, Nigeria, Chad, Ecuador, Azerbaijan and Mexico."

I removed this as it was simply speculation. Anyone have a list of oil producing countries that are (or were for any length of time) stable democracies? Skyemoor 12:02, 1 October 2006 (UTC)

List of exporting even somewhat stable democracies - I'm going to guess Canada, Norway, Venezuala (having survived US backed cout attempt), Angola (having survived US, USSR backed 27 years long civil war) and Algeria (just now trying to grab some oil profits for itself [1] and maybe inviting foreign backed cout as a result). For most of the world the peak oil that matters is the United States production.70.132.14.98 14:38, 2 October 2006 (UTC)
US production peaked in the seventies, this is why the oil embargo was able to have such a large impact on the economy of the US; it was unable to increase production to control the price of oil. The peak that matters to the world is the world peak. Also, countries that are stable exporters includes Russia and mexico - they aren't democracies, but they do have representative governments. See:Chart of exports and production of oil by nation.Christopher 19:32, 2 October 2006 (UTC)
(Yes I know American oil production has already peaked.) America is using 1 in 4 barrels of world production. If America stopped using oil the world peak would move out by 25% (okay technically put it on a different curve). Do you really think American oil interests weren't mixed up in Mexican general election 2006 controversies?70.132.30.205 02:32, 3 October 2006 (UTC)

[edit] Peak Oil Spreadsheet

After reading Kunstlers book 'The Long Emergency' in which he stated that it will take 37 years to deplete known petroleum reserves, considering estimated reserves and assuming no growth, I wanted to know what those numbers would look like if current growth(~3%) was considered, so I made a spreadsheet to calculate the graph and used the Malthusian model of population growth to do the computations. The model can also be used to determine the amount of remaining reserves after the peak as well, as long as it is told the rate of depletion. I'm telling you this because you might be intersted in seeing it. This might qualify as OR, but I'm not sure, and in any case, if any editors are interested, I will upload it. If you are just curious what my results were, I found that if we grow 4% every year, reserves will be exhausted in 2027, 3%:2029, 2%:2031. Christopher 21:38, 4 October 2006 (UTC)

Malthusian model?Isn't this the same as hubbert method?I mean,it's axacly the same equation.Your graph looks like wich line in the graph of this section Hubbert peak theory#Implications of a world peak.--Pixel ;-) 22:29, 4 October 2006 (UTC)

My differential equations textbook refers to the equation as created by Thomas Malthus and it is actually designed for population growth on a small scale on a small time period but it works for this too. The graphs that I produced were of remaining reserves, not of production. I chose not to model the production because I have no way to predict the rate at which production will decline after the peak, or when the peak would occur(I would be very iterested to learn why the organisations that have curves on that graph chose the values that they did). I do however know how much petroleum reserves the planet is predicted to have, how much we produce now, and about how much we need to grow in order to keep our economy stable. So this is a model that shows how long we can use petroleum the way we do now before we run out. The model can graph post peak production, but I don't have predicted values to give the model. Hubbert's model seems to predict that growth after the peak will be the opposite of growth before the peak, but I haven't come up with a way to satisfyingly graph an unknown peak year in a spreadsheet.Christopher 02:44, 5 October 2006 (UTC)
  • I'm interested in seeing the spreadsheet. I don't think it should be considered OR unless you say reserves WILL be depleted at a given rate. Basic math is not original research. Johntex\talk 02:49, 5 October 2006 (UTC)
Alright then. You may find a copy here; you will need openoffice to play with it. Christopher 06:02, 5 October 2006 (UTC)
The equation was recycled a zilion times in many fields.Basicly hubberts aplies the mathus equation,and asumes that trends will continiu .to learn why the organisations,it's a bunch of jerks,ther models don't worth a damm,they basicly say,technology will save us.The descoveries of new fields have almost complitly flatened.I would like to see that graph to understand exacly what you did.--Pixel ;-) 19:40, 5 October 2006 (UTC)

[edit] "Metals" section probably should go

The section on other mineral resources describes a different problem. Deffeyes makes this clear. Metals are found widely but at varying concentrations; the big issue with metals is how low-grade an ore can you process economically. Oil is found only in specific kinds of geographical formations; four conditions have to exist for an oil reservoir. Either you find it or you don't. If you do find it, extraction is usually profitable. But there are many low-grade metallic ore sources that are known but uneconomic. Thus, discovery drives the oil business, while the cost of extraction technology drives metals mining.

So metals are a different problem. Here's a quick summary of the copper situation. --John Nagle 17:08, 5 October 2006 (UTC)

If Hubbert applied his theory to metal extraction, then I think it should stay. The section should not however, be any larger than it is now. Christopher 19:25, 5 October 2006 (UTC)
Yes, "oil section" should go too.--Pixel ;-) 20:10, 5 October 2006 (UTC)
What you describe does happen with oil, and it is contained within the peak theory. "Oil" is a large area of the liquid portion of a graph of the full spectrum of hydrocarbon development, and "sweet light crude" is the most profitable, easiest to extract part. Heavy (more viscous), sour (sulfuric) crude is a bit lower on the totem pole, followed by gas condensates, extra heavy oil / bitumen (known as "oil sands"), coal to liquids, and finally kerogens ("oil shale"). There's more than enough hydrocarbon 'fossil' fuel to fuel our current economies for the next thousand years in the earth's crust, it's a matter of actually getting it out, having it in an economically usable condition. The ONLY way that it's unlike mineral deposits is that when you're using hydrocarbons as energy to harvest more hydrocarbons, you have a definitive baseline - a Return On Invested Energy of 1. Below that, it's pointless to harvest more. In a situation where you're looking for oil as a chemical feedstock or for convenience purposes, and the energy used to harvest it isn't derived from oil (imagine France using electric[ultimately nuclear] machines to harvest oil shales for jet fuel), then ROIE isn't a valid measurement, and it's purely an economic decision how low quality a hydrocarbon you want to refine.

Investors have no problem with Hubbert's reasoning applied to silver [2]:

First off, “Hubbert's Peak,” although generally used as synonym for ‘Peak Oil,’ can also apply to the production rate of metals. Any metal, like oil, is a non-renewable, absolutely exhaustible resource that exists in limited amounts of exploitable ore at high enough grades in the ground. The production rate over time of any metal, like that of oil, follows a bell-shaped curve, where the highest point is called Hubbert’s Peak. This is in honour of geologist M. King Hubbert, who first formalized this concept in 1949, although the best explanation might be in his 1976 paper.

70.231.241.78 04:54, 6 October 2006 (UTC)

"Any metal, like oil, is a non-renewable, absolutely exhaustible resource that exists in limited amounts of exploitable ore at high enough grades in the ground." What is a high enough grade depends on the price, technology, etc. It is continously decreasing. There is even talk of mining uranium from seawater in the future (uranium mining is only a small part of the cost of nuclear electricity)! If oil (or any other resource) is to be used as an energy source, EROIE matters, but for metals, phosphates, energy vectors (like hydrogen) and even oil used to make chemicals, it doesn't (although energy use still matters because it affects the cost, and most of these don't even produce energy). 72.139.119.165 13:02, 6 October 2006 (UTC)

Hubbert is referring to the peak of high grade ore - "rock containing an abnormally high concentration of a given metal". Whether or not you can mine sea water is not relevant to a peak in high grade ore production. Please keep in mind that his page is about Hubbert's theory of resources peaking not whether or not we can substitute for high grade ore with filtering the world in the quest for overall sustainability. Incidentally EROIE is misplaced for oil - production of nuclear, wind or solar energy is long since been cheaper - just you can't use it for your car.
Then the article should mention that it applies to ores of a given grade (ie. >0.1% gold in ore) rather than the existence of the metal itself, which is simply converted (ie. the iron is always there, it's just turned from some ore in the ground into a steel beam). 72.139.119.165 16:31, 6 October 2006 (UTC)
That's a good point and I have done my best to add clarification in the article. It would be better if everyone could agree on grade standards for any resource being considered. This would greatly simplify discussion. If you think the lack of such standards makes Hubbert theory too ambiguous you should add that point to the critique section.12.162.10.2 16:58, 6 October 2006 (UTC)

Peopol,i simply want to remind you that this is not a forum.Ther's not a particular grade,a shift in prise of that magnitude is a disruption for the model,you simply shift too an other curve.Plus you forget recycling.I think that for most metal recycling is alredy in the rage of 20-30%,and for example gold,it's almost 100%,for centuries,the gold of the mayas,the jues,the romans,are styl in some ones safe.--Pixel ;-) 18:19, 6 October 2006 (UTC)

[edit] Elastic

"More generally, the supply of oil may be somewhat elastic in both the short term and the long term. Higher prices may encourage greater production and the use of more expensive extraction approaches. Over time, the current higher oil prices may well cause increased investment. However, absent added reserves or alternative sources, this may only delay the peak, rather than eliminating the peak altogether, and accelerate the depletion of reserves."

This paragraph doesn't seem to critique anything and is not sourced.70.231.241.78 11:22, 6 October 2006 (UTC)


Still, seems to me as pretty obvious maths. I'm sure it will be easy to find a source for that paragraph...

[edit] Articles

Revision as of 13:06, 6 October 2006 (edit) 72.139.119.165 (Talk) (→Articles - remove some spam links)

The articles removed were not spam; what criteria were you using for removal? Skyemoor 14:42, 6 October 2006 (UTC)

[edit] Article going downhill

Compare the current article with the version from a month ago. Was it better thirty days ago? Should we revert all the way back to there? --John Nagle 18:36, 6 October 2006 (UTC)

I agree the article is deteriorating. However, WP policy is fairly clear that reverting to a much earlier version, throwing away all intermediate edits (including typo fixes, updated URLs etc.) is not the way to go. If you want to propose this seriously, please go through the history since then, and create the article you'd like to see this one replaced by on a talk or user page. We can then try to find consensus on reverting to it.
I'm not going to add another long list of criticism. I'll just look into my crystal bowl and predict that at the current rate, the article will quickly turn into yet another peak oil fan page, along the lines of "Hubbert was a scientist. He used Complicated Science That You Don't Need To Understand (but we'll slap in a couple of formulas to scare off the unscientific) to prove that oil will run out soon. <include 50 pages of recent news cherry-picked to be as panic-inducing as possible, mixed with some dire predictions>. <downplay criticism to appear to be about minor details>."
I'm just waiting for the mystic statements (the one about the peak being after half the cumulative oil production) to reappear, along with more credit to Hubbert for "correctly" predicting things he actually got wrong.
RandomP 12:44, 31 October 2006 (UTC)
Perhaps you should make a list of the things he actually go wrong, with supporting analyses. Skyemoor 02:34, 2 November 2006 (UTC)
We aim to please - I've removed this unsourced apologia

However, in the late 1970s and early 1980s, global oil consumption actually dropped (due to the shift to energy efficient cars, the shift to electricity and natural gas for heating, etc), then rebounded to a lower level of growth in the mid 1980s (see graphics on right). The shift to reduced consumption in these areas meant that the projection assumptions were not realized and, hence, oil production did not peak in 1995.

as a olive branch of good intentions.
This paragraph is supported, at a minimum, by the article's consumption graphs. The other points are prima facie. OTOH, You haven't provided a list of things he actually got wrong. Skyemoor 10:44, 2 November 2006 (UTC)
However my interest Hubbert peak theory is more because its our only shot at predicting peak oil than any pretense of it being a sophisticated predictive model. What model are you advocating that is better?70.231.233.251 03:30, 2 November 2006 (UTC)

After some research I have come to the conclusion that the unsourced description of Hubbert's curve:


The standard Hubbert curve is a real-valued function of one real variable; in order to apply it to the real world, scales have to be chosen, one for time and one for oil production, based on the observed data. They are usually given implicitly by specifying the integral of the Hubbert curve, the ultimate total oil production Q∞, with a unit of billions of barrels, and the initial growth rate asymptotically reached for very early times, a, often expressed in percent per year.

Hubbert also proposed a method for determining the values for Q∞ and a based on empirical data, by considering the ratio of production at a given time and cumulative production to that point as a function not of time but of the cumulative production itself; if production followed a Hubbert curve, this function would have the form a - \frac{Q}{Q_\infty} a, a straight line. Thus, by considering the best linear fit to the function actually observed, estimates for a and Q∞ can be obtained.


maybe wrong. In particular Cavallo [3] claims it is a function of three degrees of freedom instead of two. As Cavallo is a supporter of a near peak I have no reason to doubt him. If there are no objections I will replace the overreaching description of Hubbert's method with one that admits he used some guess work and incorporated knowledge of the potential discovery peak (which we need much more info on). DodgeTheBullet 15:47, 13 November 2006 (UTC)

[edit] Coal Liquefaction

I think the article needs to say something about the viability of this. Sylvain1972 19:18, 6 October 2006 (UTC)

See Synthetic fuel for that, mentioned under "alternative sources". --John Nagle 18:04, 9 October 2006 (UTC)

[edit] Some redundant sentences

Alternatives are energy sources other than conventional oil and natural gas which can be used instead in one or more applications, such as:

  • a prime energy source to generate electricity
  • a transportation fuel
  • for space heating
  • for water heating
  • an ingredient in plastics, pesticides, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and fertilizers
  • a lubricant in industrial machinery and manufacturing.

This is taking up a lot of space and is not clarifying anything about Hubbert peak theory or mitigation of a peak.70.231.247.209 05:06, 18 October 2006 (UTC)

Opinions on the effects of Hubbert's peak, and the subsequent terminal decline of global oil production, range from predictions that the market economy will develop alternatives to oil and decrease oil dependence in modern economies, to doomsday scenarios of global economic meltdown and societal collapse.70.132.24.77 20:57, 22 October 2006 (UTC)

[edit] Problem with world oil production numbers

This is from Wikipedia:

"Production in Q2 2006 was 85.1 Mbbl/d..."

And this is from a reuters news article: [4]

"Energy Information Administration data showed world supply of crude oil has declined to 83.98 million barrels per day in the second quarter..." Richard Cane 15:50, 29 October 2006 (UTC)

The IEA also adds in biofuels, though not in a way that is yet clear or unambiguous. Skyemoor 16:11, 29 October 2006 (UTC)
That would explain the difference. Perhaps this information should be added to the article in order to avoid confusion. Richard Cane 19:00, 29 October 2006 (UTC)
We technically haven't received the official Q3 report, this one's only an estimate. And normally a month or two after the official report is out lately, they've revised it downward. You are right, we need to do something to explain. Will mull over and tackle later this week. Skyemoor 18:38, 31 October 2006 (UTC)
From the IEA report: "Difficulties in collecting biofuel data are also apparent. It is much easier to collect ethanol and biodiesel supply than to capture the demand side of the equation. Further, there is very little information on stocks. The US Energy Information Administration has been very open about the difficulties of reporting US data, but the same problems apply elsewhere - does gasoline or diesel demand from a non-OECD country include or exclude biofuels? Ethanol blending takes place at terminals rather than refineries, so its inclusion in primary stocks data is unclear." Skyemoor 02:18, 2 November 2006 (UTC)

[edit] Back into the breach (Intro section)

Alright, so I reread the intro section (I wrote some of it originally months ago), and I still didn't think that it read well, so I made more changes to it in a way that I hope is an improvement. I only added one sentence, but I reworked how the paragraphs are structured. If anyone's bored, please review. SparhawkWiki 15:59, 30 October 2006 (UTC)


[edit] Updating

A lot of this stuff seems to be decades out of date. For example the Stern report out last month says//

Far from running out of oil, it said, we are still awash with it. Taking all fossil fuels together — oil, gas and coal — the world has so far used 2,700 billion barrels of oil equivalent. The amount of oil, gas and coal left in the ground is at least 40,000 billion barrels, with at least seven billion barrels of that economically recoverable. On unchanged polices, demand for energy will be some 4,700 billion barrels over the next half-century. Oil demand will be 1,800 billion barrels, and that amount, according to the report, is economically recoverable as long as oil remains above $30 a barrel.

“There is enough fossil fuel in the ground to meet world consumption demand at reasonable cost until at least 2050,” the report said.// Probably the 600 page report merits its own article? --BozMo talk 15:17, 27 November 2006 (UTC)

It has its own page - Stern Review and you are quoting this article I guess - [5].DodgeTheBullet 15:45, 27 November 2006 (UTC)

Nope but a similar BBC one. However the figures conflict with the ones in this article: heance call for update --BozMo talk 13:06, 6 December 2006 (UTC)

The complaint above seems to be that there is so much fossil fuel left that a peak in production is decades (or centuries) away. The real problem, as pointed out by the Hirsch Report, is that a shift to extraction of oil from coal will require a massive infrastructure shift that will take decades; if the peak occurs before then, which most petrogeologists predict, then the economic impacts will be unavoidable. But don't take my word for it; please read the Hirsch report. Skyemoor 13:31, 9 December 2006 (UTC)

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