Hillary Rodham Clinton 2008 presidential speculation

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Main article: Hillary Rodham Clinton

Main article: United States presidential election, 2008

Main article: Potential Democratic candidates in the 2008 U.S. presidential election

New York Senator and former First Lady Hillary Rodham Clinton has expressed interest in the 2008 United States presidential race.^[1] No woman has ever been nominated for President by a major party. Clinton's 2008 campaign has been the subject of media speculation since October 2002.^[2]

Clinton has an established national image that makes her possible candidacy in 2008 a popular and controversial topic among media pundits, bloggers, and the public at large. For example, in July 2005 the magazine Washington Monthly ran two side-by-side articles, one thinking that she could win the presidency and one thinking that she could not.^[3][4] In a September 2006 WNBC/Marist Poll poll, 43% of Democrats preferred her for the 2008 presidential nomination.^[5]

Time magazine cover displaying the view that Clinton may have a polarizing effect on the 2008 election process.

In a poll conducted by the same organizations in May 2005, when general voters were asked the likelihood of voting for Senator Clinton for president, 29% of respondents were very likely, 24% were somewhat likely, 7% were not very likely, and 39% were not at all likely. In June 2003, in a similar poll, the numbers had been 21% very likely, 21% somewhat likely, 12% not very likely, and 44% not at all likely. In May 2005, 55% of respondents held a favorable view of Senator Clinton, while 39% held an unfavorable view of her.^[6] These findings were similar to the June 2003 poll that found 53% reacted favorably toward her and 41% unfavorably, with the undecided/no opinion bloc representing only 6% of those polled.

Following the 2004 election cycle, Clinton began what some saw as a movement to the political center by supporting health care reform with Contract with America architect and former adversary Newt Gingrich [1]. The alignment represents a reconciliation with the past, for it was Gingrich that helped defeat Clinton's health care plan in the early 1990s. Clinton's January 2005, speech on abortion was viewed by some as part of her alleged move to the center. Liberal media watchdog Media Matters has offered evidence that Clinton's positions have remained consistent with her past.^[7][8] In August 2005, the Los Angeles Times reported that Clinton was positioning herself as a centrist[2]; critics cited her Senate voting record as proof that was not the case.^[9]

In January 2006, the moderate-liberal magazine The New Republic attempted to debunk the "myth" that Senator Clinton's popularity in traditionally Republican upstate New York was unprecedented, arguing both that the region was not as conservative as was often assumed in the national media and that her approval ratings there were comparable to those of other prominent Democrats. The article challenged the assumption that Sen. Clinton's appeal in upstate New York would be the harbinger of her ability to attract support from moderates and conservatives nationwide, setting off a debate throughout the blogosphere as to her presidential prospects.^[10]

In February 2006, TheWhiteHouseProject.org named Hillary Rodham Clinton one of its "8 in '08", a group of eight female politicians who could possibly run and/or be elected president in 2008. Former German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder said that he's pulling for Clinton to win the White House: "I'd be very pleased if Hillary Clinton would become the next American president".^[11]

The most recent presidential poll, conducted by the Opinion Research Corporation, was conducted from November 17-19, 2006. Hillary Clinton maintains her first place position for the Democratic Party nominee, polling in at 33% when registered voters were asked, "Which of the following people would you be most likely to support for the Democratic nomination for president in 2008?"^[12]

On December 3, 2006 CNN reported that an undisclosed source had spoken to Clinton. The source disclosed that "it was pretty clear" she is going to run.^[13]

A recent poll showed Clinton doing well against apparent Republican frontrunner Senator John McCain in a hypothetical match-up.

Time Poll - July 13-17, 2006

[edit] Name Difference

Senator Clinton's name is one of national recognition, however, recent studies have shown that election results can vary with the usage of Senator Clinton's maiden name: Rodham. A CNN poll conducted by Opinion Research Corp. asked 506 American adults whom they preferred among possible 2008 Presidential candidates. The results are as follows: ^[14]:

CNN Poll - October, 2006

It is clear her name difference has a different effect depending on the Republican counterpart and it should be noted Senator Clinton's name appears Hillary Rodham Clinton on the ballot. However, the relevance of this can be discussed because of the error margin on such studies.

[edit] See also

• Opinion polling for the 2008 United States presidential election
• Democratic Party (United States) presidential primaries, 2008

[edit] References