False consensus effect

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The false consensus effect refers to the tendency for people to overestimate the degree to which others agree with them. People readily guess their own opinions, beliefs and predilections to be more prevalent in the general public than they really are.

This bias is commonly present in a group setting where one thinks the collective opinion of their own group matches that of the larger population. Since the members of a group reach a consensus and rarely encounter those who dispute it, they tend to believe that everybody thinks the same way.

One of the most notable examples is the possibly apocryphal quip by The New Yorker film critic Pauline Kael, who reportedly said she couldn't believe Nixon had won since no one she knew had voted for him.

There is no single cause for this cognitive bias; the availability heuristic and self-serving bias have been suggested as at least partial underlying factors.

[edit] See also

• Attributional bias
• Overconfidence effect
  • Lake Wobegon effect
  • List of cognitive biases

[edit] References

• Ross L., Greene D. & House, P. (1977). The false consensus effect: an egocentric bias in social perception and attribution processes. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology 13, 279-301.

• Fields, James M., and Howard Schuman, (1976-77) "Public Beliefs about the Beliefs of the Public," Public Opinion Quarterly, 40: 427-448.

[edit] External links

• Changing minds: the false consensus effect