European Union as an emerging superpower

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

For more information on the topic see Emerging superpower and Superpower
European Union
██ European Union██ EU candidate countries

The European Union consists of 25 sovereign states, which - from a core of six founding members in the 1950s - have built the world's largest multinational customs union, sometimes considered to be a nascent United States of Europe. Membership will grow to 27 with the addition of Bulgaria and Romania to the Union in 2007. For the purpose of this article, it is considered to be a unit. The members of the European Union have transferred to it (or "pooled") considerable sovereignty, more than that of any other non-sovereign regional organisation. In certain areas, the EU has taken on the character of a federation or confederation.

There is speculation as to whether the EU has already attained superpower status regardless of its fragmented integration level. While conventional thinking holds that the EU cannot be a superpower because it is not a united state and lacks a large unified military, it has also been argued that neither full political integration nor military power is required for the European Union to wield international influence in the way a traditional superpower would do. [1] See the European Union controversy section in the Superpower article.

Contents

[edit] Points in favour of the EU as superpower

  • Economic power. The EU is the world's biggest economy, and the world's biggest capitalist marketplace; according to World Bank data, it had a combined GDP in 2005 of more than $12 trillion, slightly larger than that of the United States. It is also the world's biggest trading power, accounting for a share of global imports and exports three times larger than that of the United States. This power has encouraged the EU to assert itself more aggressively in trade disputes with China over its textile exports, and with the United States over issues as varied as trade with Cuba, trade in bananas, steel tariffs, and industrial subsidies.
    Euro banknotes
    Twelve of the EU's members have adopted the euro, widely considered to be the only global currency that might pose a threat to the dominance of the US dollar. An aggressive programme of mergers and acquisitions over the last two generations has led to the rise of new European multinationals that have joined their US and Japanese competitors in the Fortune Global 500 list of the world's biggest, especially on the part of United Kingdom firms.
  • Political power. The EU's 25 member states number among the most politically stable and successful in the world. Building on historical traditions of democracy and the rule of law in several of its larger members, the EU has helped spread democracy to newer member states by requiring that they make changes to their systems of government, their legal systems, and their economic systems. The EU has developed a sphere of influence over its closest neighbours derived from its economic power and promise of membership (arguably its most effective foreign policy).[2]

Older member states such as Spain, Ireland, Portugal and Greece have famously benefitted, a template which is being applied now in newer eastern European member states and aspirant members. The EU has also benefitted from a decline in the credibility of US foreign policy during the years of the Bush administration, arising mainly from widespread international opposition to the war in Iraq, doubts about the efficacy of the US-led war on terror, and policy differences between the US and its allies on a wide range of issues, from climate change to the International Criminal Court, land mines, and the international role of the United Nations. Finally, the EU has become adept at the use of soft power, an approach that emphasises diplomacy, economic investment and negotiation rather than coercion and military force.

The European Union and its prospective member states.
Enlarge
The European Union and its prospective member states.

The United Kingdom and France both hold permanent seats on the UN Security Council, with Germany part of the Group of Four vying for a permanent seat in the Security Council. The EU also includes several non-permanent members, and it is currently possible that five of the fifteen seats of the Security Council could potentially be taken by the EU members. There has been a movement to abolish the seats of France and the UK in favour of a single European seat, but this would likely be resisted by other member states.

European rocket Ariane 5 launching ESA's Rosetta space probe. ESA is a good example of how Europe is working together as a unit to achieve superpower-style goals
Enlarge
European rocket Ariane 5 launching ESA's Rosetta space probe. ESA is a good example of how Europe is working together as a unit to achieve superpower-style goals
  • Geographic power. The European Union has a large area of approximately 4 million square kilometres, the seventh in the world [1]. Its landmass may actually grow considerably, with the addition of new members (Enlargement of the European Union, Statistics relating to the EU enlargement). It also has large reserves of oil (it is the 8th greatest producer of oil), coal, uranium, iron ore and other resources. However, it is currently a net importer of resources, heavily dependent on imported energy - primarily from Russia. Also the EU has the leading role in the deployment of renewables (contribute 75% of the world's wind power), with very ambitious targets, 12% of the total EU energy consumption by 2010 and 20% by 2020. An eventual membership of Norway or Russia would greatly increase its self sufficiency.
  • Military power. The EU's military power does not currently function as a unit in any major sense, but this is beginning to change; see Eufor. The military resources of the 25 member states would, if combined, constitute the second largest military in the world, and virtually every member state has military personnel currently engaged in peacekeeping activities in various parts of the world. There is much debate on this issue, and some EU member states hold strong views on defence neutrality; in some cases, this is a constitutional issue.

Many of the EU states have governments which oppose wide use of military force, and several (including Austria and Ireland) have official policies of neutrality. This may reduce scope for any future expansion of the EU's total military power, aside from inclusion of national forces from new member states.

EUFOR former Commander General David Leakey
Enlarge
EUFOR former Commander General David Leakey

European Union member states defence spending is US$193 billion, compared to the United States' US$390 billion, but both (assuming the EU member states spending is grouped for the purposes of comparison) are still far ahead of the next country, China, whose expenditure estimates range from 35.4 (SIPRI) to 90 (DoD) billion US dollars. This figure may also include internal security spending in some states such as Italy.

Some European Union member states have some of the most disciplined armies in the world, and their technology levels are similar to those of the United States. Indeed, the two share extensively military technology, intelligence, tactics and strategy. However, many smaller and new former Warsaw Pact members have considerably less well equipped and trained militaries.

Soldier of the EUFOR participating in operation Spring Lift, as part of Althea
Enlarge
Soldier of the EUFOR participating in operation Spring Lift, as part of Althea

Two European Union member states, the United Kingdom and France, also have their own substantial nuclear arsenal totaling approximately 550 nuclear warheads. Whilst these arsenals are much smaller than those of either the US or Russia, either arsenal is sufficient to devastate any conceivable adversary, and therefore can be said to be a credible defence deterrent. Other member states have strong positions against nuclear weapons - for example Germany's public opinion is strongly opposed to nuclear weapons.

Of the militaries of the EU member states, only the United Kingdom, France, and Germany could be said to have true power projection capabilities. As the EU is not a cohesive entity and many member states lack the resources to support comprehensive armed forces abroad, the European Union has few aircraft carriers and little heavy air transport capability when compared to the United States. But the EU has more naval frigates than the US, and more personnel in uniform. Its geographical location also allows faster deployment to potential troublespots in the Middle East and North Africa.

[edit] Proposed further integration

The European Union is a constantly changing organisation. Certain EU countries are currently considering further integration, in areas such as foreign and defence policy, that would grant the European Union even more superpower-like characteristics.

Whether these will be accepted by the other member states is unclear, but public opinion polls find large majorities throughout the EU in favour of the EU exerting itself as a global power, and, in particular, developing more independence of US foreign policy, which has been particularly controversial and unpopular during the Bush administration. Particular facets of integration which would arguably, and perhaps controversially, cause the EU to accrue more superpower-like characteristics include:

[edit] Points against the EU as a superpower

  • EU Integration/Unity. This status would likely depend on further progress in European integration and federalisation, if that were to be the direction agreed for the EU as a whole. The repudiation of the new European constitution by the voters of founding nations and other EU member states viewed as having broadly positive positions on integrationist ideas, France and the Netherlands, in 2005, undermined plans for closer integration. With comments made by Austria's presidency, the constitution may be resurrected, although there is continuing debate as to the feasibility of this - the Dutch government has in particular indicated dissent for any proposal to present substantially the same proposals a second time. The former German government favoured putting the EU constitution to France repeatedly until they say "Oui", which is viewed by some as undemocratic. Poland in particular opposes the EU constitution, as it would be limiting national decision making in foreign and defence policy and any changes that would weaken the role of NATO or the strategic role of USA in Europe. But, an eventual failure of the constitution, can't prevent individual group of countries, going ahead (Multi-speed Europe), this is already the case, like the Euro or the Schengen Agreement. Future political developments will determine the place of the EU in world events.
  • Euroscepticism. There is considerable euroscepticism in Britain and Scandinavia. The enlargement of the EU into Eastern Europe was questioned in the western part of the continent. Even greater questions are being raised as to Turkey joining.
  • Aging. Demographically, the EU has a fast aging population, comparable to Japan but not as severe as in Russia or Ukraine, presenting prospective problems concerning sources of labour, economic growth as well as welfare expenses.
  • No unified military. The EU does not currently have a unified military force, and its governments often differ on the goals of defence policy. Most famously, while the forces of Britain, Spain, and Italy participated in the invasion and/or occupation of Iraq beginning in 2003, the governments of France,Germany and Belgium condemned the invasion. However, European publics were united in their majority opposition to the war, which some take as a strong indication of the support for an independent European foreign policy and military capability.
  • Economic growth. Though the EU currently has an economy just as large as the US, its annual economic growth rate is only 1.7% in comparison with 3.5% for the USA, but virtually the same on a per capita basis (in contrast China is growing at 9.2% and India is growing at 8.9%). GDP is just a statistic, it should be interpreted with caution[3][4] and its use is not without controversy. There are two opposing analyses of EU economy: Europeans take more leisure or Europeans are burdened by high taxes and over regulation. Future enlargements and reforms make predictions about EU dynamism very difficult. (As of August 2006, though, the Eurozone has recently been outstripping both the United States and Japan in growth and job creation, showing the difficulty in predicting future economic growth. [5])

[edit] References and sources

  1. ^ John McCormick The European Superpower (Palgrave Macmillan, 2006)
  2. ^ The EU as a Regional Normative Hegemon. Retrieved on 2006-06-24.
  3. ^ Comparison EU USA economy. Retrieved on 2006-06-24.
  4. ^ Comparison EU USA economy-from federalunion.org. Retrieved on 2006-07-06.
  5. ^ Eurozone economy booming.

[edit] External links

[edit] See also

Power in international relations
Power statuses Middle power | Regional power | Great power | Superpower | Hyperpower
Emerging superpowers China | India | European Union
Future geopolitics African Century | American Century | Asian Century | British Moment | Chinese Century | European Century | Indian Century | Pacific Century
Types of power Soft power | Hard power | Political power | Power (sociology) | Power politics | Power projection | Polarity in international relations
Other BRIC | BRIMC | BRICS | Energy superpower | Second superpower | SCO | Superpower collapse | Superpower disengagement
Retrieved from "http://en.wikipedia.org../../../e/u/r/European_Union_as_an_emerging_superpower_07e9.html"
In other languages