Dunfermline and West Fife by-election, 2006

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The Dunfermline and West Fife by-election, in Dunfermline and western Fife, Scotland, was held on February 9, 2006 following the death of sitting Labour MP Rachel Squire on January 6. The by-election was the first seat to change hands in the 2005 Parliament when Willie Rennie won the seat for the Liberal Democrats, a gain from Labour, by 1,800 votes. The BBC reported a swing from Labour to the Liberal Democrats of 16.24%.[1]

It was the first time Labour had lost a seat at a Westminster by-election in Scotland since the Scottish National Party won the Glasgow Govan by-election 1988, and the first time Labour has ever lost to the Liberal Democrats, or their precedessors the Liberal Party, in a Scottish Westminster by-election. The by-election took place in the middle of a leadership election in the Liberal Democrats and the party was perceived in the media to be declining in the polls as a result of negative publicity surrounding the resignation of former leader Charles Kennedy and revelations about the private lives of Mark Oaten and Simon Hughes.

The constituency of Dunfermline and West Fife was first created for the United Kingdom Parliament at the 2005 UK General Election and saw a comfortable Labour win at that election. It was the second Westminster by-election in a Scottish constituency since the 2005 UK general election. In the Livingston by-election, 2005, Labour retained the seat with the Scottish National Party second but 2,680 votes behind. The Livingston constituency lies just across the Firth of Forth from the Dunfermline and West Fife constituency.

Contents

[edit] Campaign

The Courier reported on January 23 that leaked minutes of a meeting on January 11 at Westminster revealed that "senior Scottish Liberal Democrats do not believe their party has any chance of winning the Dunfermline and West Fife by-election", and that "their aim is to beat the SNP rather than topple Labour". This suggestion was backed up on January 27 by a poll in the Daily Telegraph that put the Lib Dems at 13% UK-wide (down 10% on Election 2005), their worst position since the 2001 general election.

The Sunday Herald reported on 29 January that they had "evidence of a high-level “fix” to select (the Labour) candidate", because "party bosses sent out a leaflet on behalf of Catherine Stihler’s campaign hours before she was selected to fight the seat." This story followed earlier reports of a similar row over the selection of the Conservative and Unionist candidate: Fife Tory leader Stuart Randall’s claim that he was left off the shortlist for being "far too old and middle-aged to fit the bill". Randall, who stood as Conservative candidate against Gordon Brown in Dunfermline East at the 2001 and 2005 UK general elections and fought Dunfermline East constituency at the 2003 Scottish Parliament general election, was aged only 43. Local Conservative activists were reported to be furious that such a high-profile local figure was left off the shortlist of candidates for the by-election.

The by-election electorate for the constituency was 72,225, a slight increase (of 2.04%) on the general election in May 2005.

[edit] Implications (on UK and Scottish elections)

The constituency neighbours Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath, the seat of Gordon Brown, current Chancellor of the Exchequer and widely seen as the main contender to succeed Tony Blair as Leader of the Labour Party and Prime Minister when the latter steps down in the life of the current Parliament. Brown actually lives in the Dunfermline and West Fife constituency. The constituency is also near to North East Fife, the constituency of Sir Menzies Campbell, leader of the Liberal Democrat party (only a leadership contender at the time). Prior to the election it was speculated that a poor showing for either party in the vicinity of Brown and/or Campbell's political bases could impact upon their chances of winning their respective parties' leaderships.

The result of this Westminster by-election can be seen as a litmus test of the parties' standing prior to the Scottish Parliament general election, 2007. The results of all by-elections in Scotland have been particularly highly valued by psephologists and political commentators since the demise of the last regular, monthly Scottish voting-intention poll (by The Herald and Taylor Nelson Sofres System 3) at the end of 2003. The result was also notable as it came at a time when Labour's national opinion poll ratings were very high.[2]

Immediately after the election the Liberal Democrats claimed that the results showed they were the challengers to the Labour Party and that the Conservatives had failed their first electoral test under their new leader.

[edit] Result

United Kingdom Parliament: Dunfermline and West Fife by-election 2006
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Liberal Democrats Willie Rennie 12,391 35.8 +15.6
Labour Catherine Stihler 10,591 30.6 -16.8
Scottish National Party Douglas Chapman 7,261 21.0 +2.1
Conservative Carrie Ruxton 2,702 7.8 -2.5
Scottish Socialist John McAllion 537 1.6 -0.1
Scottish Christian George Hargreaves 411 1.2
Abolish Forth Bridge Tolls Party Tom Minogue 374 1.1
UK Independence Ian Borland 208 0.6 -0.9
Common Good Dick Rodgers 103 0.3
Majority 1,800 5.2
Turnout 34,578 47.9 -12.0
Liberal Democrats gain from Labour Swing 16.2

[edit] Previous election

General Election 2005: Dunfermline and West Fife
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Rachel Squire 20,111 47.4 -7.1
Liberal Democrats David Herbert 8,549 20.2 +5.9
Scottish National Party Douglas Chapman 8,026 18.9 +1.1
Conservative Roger Smillie 4,376 10.3 +0.6
Scottish Socialist Susan Archibald 689 1.6 -0.8
UK Independence Ian Borland 643 1.5 +0.1
Majority 11,562 27.3
Turnout 42,394 59.9 +2.3
Labour hold Swing -6.5

[edit] Notional election results for 2001

This constituency did not exist in 2001, so the "notional" figures below were calculated by professional psephologists to give an indication of how the results may have looked had the constituency existed in 2001. These calculations were broadly accepted by major media outlets and the political parties, although there was a margin of error. The errors were larger in rural constituencies, which does not apply in this case, so it is quite likely that the following figures are a fair guesstimate.

General Election 2001: Dunfermline and West Fife
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour 22,070 54.5
Scottish National Party 7,225 17.8
Liberal Democrats 5,773 14.3
Conservative 3,919 9.7
Scottish Socialist 971 2.4
UK Independence 559 1.4
Majority 14,845 36.6
Labour hold Swing

[edit] Last election in the Scottish Parliament constituencies

[edit] Dunfermline West

Dunfermline West is the Scottish Parliament constituency which most closely corresponds to the Westminster seat. It lies entirely within the boundaries of the Westminster constituency, but is smaller:

Scottish parliamentary election, 2003: Dunfermline West
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Scott Barrie 8,644 34.3 -9.9
Independent Campaign for Local Hospital Services David Wishart 4,584 18.2
Scottish National Party Brian Goodall 4,372 17.4 -10.4
Liberal Democrats Jim Tolson 3,636 14.4 -3.8
Conservative Jim Mackie 1,868 7.4 -2.3
Scottish Socialist Andy Jackson 923 3.7
Independent Alastair Harper 714 2.8
Independent Damien Quigg 459 1.8
Majority 4,080 16.2
Turnout 25,240 46.8
Labour hold Swing -14.1

[edit] Dunfermline East

There are also significant parts of Dunfermline East (Scottish Parliament constituency) in the Westminster seat:

Scottish parliamentary election, 2003: Dunfermline East
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Helen Eadie 11,552 49.9 -6.0
Scottish National Party Janet Law 4,262 18.4 -8.2
Conservative Stuart Randall 2,485 10.7 +0.9
Independent Campaign for Local Hospital Services Brian Walker Stewart 1,890 8.2
Scottish Socialist Linda Graham 1,537 6.6
Liberal Democrats Rodger Spillane 1,428 6.2 -1.5
Majority 7,290 31.5
Turnout 23,154 45.2
Labour hold Swing +1.1

[edit] Last elections to Fife Council

The Labour Party holds more than half of the local government wards in the Dunfermline and West Fife constituency. In the latest Fife Council local elections, 2003, Labour won twelve wards in the constituency, the Liberal Democrats won five wards, the Scottish National Party won one ward, and the Conservative and Unionist Party won no wards:

  1. Kincardine, Culross and Low Valleyfield: Independent Gain from Labour
  2. Blairhall, High Valleyfield and Torryburn: Labour Hold
  3. Oakley Saline and Steelend: Labour Hold
  4. Cairneyhill, Carnock and Milesmark: Labour Hold
  5. Crossford and Dunfermline Central: Lib Dem Hold
  6. Baldridgeburn: Labour Hold
  7. Wellwood and Headwell: Labour Hold
  8. Townhill and Bellyeoman: Independent Campaign for Local Hospital Services Gain from Labour
  9. Garvock and Carnegie: Lib Dem Hold
  10. Halbeath, Hill of Beath and Kingseat: Labour Hold
  11. Woodmill: Labour Hold
  12. Linburn: Labour Hold
  13. Brucefield and Nethertown: Lib Dem Hold
  14. Pitcorthie: Lib Dem Hold
  15. Limekilns and Pitreavie: Lib Dem Gain from Labour
  16. Rosyth West: Labour Hold
  17. Rosyth East: Labour Hold
  18. Inverkeithing West and Rosyth South: SNP Hold
  19. Inverkeithing East and North Queensferry: Labour Gain from SNP
  20. Crossgates and Moss-side: Labour Hold

There have been no local by-elections in any of these wards since 2003. There have been three local by-elections in other wards in Fife since 2003:

[edit] See also

[edit] External links

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