Ding Hai Effect
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The Ding Hai Effect (丁蟹效應), Adam Cheng Effect, Chiu Koon Effect (秋官效應), or Qiuguan Effect is a peculiar stock phenomenon that affects global stock markets. The theory goes that whenever the Hong Kong actor Adam Cheng stars in a new television show, there is a sudden drop in the market. No reason is given for this effect, and it is still a popular topic amongst stock brokers, years after the drama series Greed of Man was broadcast in Hong Kong in 1993. The effect is named after Ding Hai, the main character of the show, played by Adam Cheng.
Initially, the Ding Hai Effect occurred whenever the TVB drama series Greed of Man or its remake, The War of the Century (made by ATV) is broadcast. Later, it was also observed when another new show that involved Adam Cheng was being aired.
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[edit] First occurrence
The first reported instance of this effect occurred during 1993, when the drama series Greed of Man made its debut. During the time it was broadcast, the Hong Kong Heng Seng Index dropped by a significant percentage, causing billions of stock losses. Adam Cheng even admitted he was afraid of going to the Financial Districts of Hong Kong after the show airs, for he fears stockbrokers in the area might get physical with him.
[edit] Second occurrence
The second reported instance of the effect was felt during the re-run of the series years later on TVB Jade (one of the Chinese-language channels in Hong Kong) around 1997. During that time, a stock market (and economic) bubble caused by overinflated housing prices burst, causing a stock market crisis that spread to other countries and eventually mired Hong Kong in a recession.
[edit] Third occurrence
The third recorded instance of this effect occurred in 2000, when a modern re-make of Greed of Man, The War of the Century, was broadcast on ATV (One of the two TV corporations in Hong Kong). At that time, the technology stock bubble burst around the world, also causing a big stock market crisis that wiped out many people's investments.
[edit] Fourth occurrence
The fourth instance occurred in the summer of 2003, when the show was re-broadcast on TVB-USA (one of TVB's overseas satellite channel). At that time, corporate accounting scandals swept across the US, prompting companies that were affected to lose billions upon billions in their stock values, thus causing a bear market that lasted approximately until the series ended.
[edit] Fifth occurrence
The fifth instance occurred during the summer of 2004, when Blade Heart, a new TVB drama starring Adam Cheng, premiered in Hong Kong. At the time, stock markets around the world became unsteady and a downward trend occurred due to high oil prices and instabilities in the Middle East.
[edit] Sixth occurrence
The sixth instance occurred during the first quarter of 2005, when Prince's Shadow, a drama show set during the Qing Dynasty, was aired. During this time, continued instability in the Middle East, in addition to record high oil prices, and local political instability surrounding the resignation of Former Chief Executive Tung Chee-Hwa contributed to a small-scale panic and fluctuation in the stock market.
[edit] Seventh occurrence
The seventh instance began on 3 April, 2006, when TVB released the legal series Bar Benders. At the time of the premiere, the Hang Seng Index was at 15,800, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was at 11,150, and the NASDAQ Composite was at 2,340.
The airing of Bar Benders coincided with the airing of Greed Of Man on Pay-TV channels in Hong Kong. The Hang Seng Index dropped 1,151.25 points in 8 market days from a high of 17,328.43 on 9 May to a low of 16,177.18 on 19 May. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 674.3 points in 8 market days from a high of 11,684.28 to a low of 11,009.98 in the same period.
[edit] Eighth occurrence
The most recent occurrence happened in early July of 2006, when Prince's Shadow was aired on TVB's US broadcasting arm. During this time, the Israel-Lebanon conflict began, causing wild drops in all financial markets across the world.
[edit] Exception
The only time Ding Hai Effect did not occur was in 2004, when Driving Power did not cause a stock market crash or drop.
[edit] Conclusion
The Ding Hai Effect has led to Adam Cheng attracting much press attention. Now, whenever a new show starring Adam Cheng is about to be broadcast, some stockbrokers and investors in Hong Kong become wary, even anticipating a drop in the market.
While some investors have argued that the effect is no more than a series of coincidences and amounts to nothing more than a self-fulfilling prophecy, the show's peculiar effect on the stock market is regarded by some as more than coincidence. It was also confirmed that Crédit Lyonnais wrote a report on this matter.
[1]The Adam Cheng Effect: The man who crashes the market
