Demographics and politics of Northern Ireland

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Northern Ireland

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[edit] Demographics of Northern Ireland from the 2001 United Kingdom census

Population

1,685,267

Place of birth

Ethnicity

Much of the population of Northern Ireland identifies with one of two different ideologies, unionist (who want the region to remain part of the United Kingdom) and nationalist (who want a united Ireland). Unionists are predominantly Protestant, most of whom belong to the Presbyterian Church in Ireland or the Church of Ireland. Nationalists are predominantly Roman Catholic. However, not all Catholics support Nationalism, and not all Protestants support Unionism. It is also important to note that, in parallel with other parts of Europe, the proportion of the population practising their religious beliefs has fallen dramatically in recent decades, particularly among Catholics and adherents of mainstream Protestant denominations. This has not necessarily resulted in a weakening of communal feeling.

Protestant Distribution in Ireland
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Protestant Distribution in Ireland

Once established under the Government of Ireland Act 1920, Northern Ireland was structured geographically to guarantee a unionist majority in its government. In local government the significantly nationalist area of Derry produced a Unionist majority through the gerrymandering of the electoral ward. Ironically, when the issue of gerrymandering was addressed in 1973, the changing of the electoral wards favoured Unionism.[2] Anger at local government control by unionists, and the alleged awarding of social housing to Protestants to ensure unionist majorities in areas with large Catholic populations, was a significant factor in the creation of the Northern Ireland Civil Rights Association in the 1960s, with a sit-in by nationalist politician Austin Currie in a house granted to a 19-year old single Protestant woman (who worked for the Ulster Unionist Party) ahead of a large homeless Catholic family triggering off the movement. [3] This was the only known documented case of this having happened. As Currie himself said at the time, "If I had waited a thousand years, I'd never get a better case than this one."

The number of people claiming to be Roman Catholic in the Northern Ireland census has steadily increased, though has slowed somewhat in recent decades. By contrast, the number of people claiming to be Presbyterian and Church of Ireland in the census has decreased. Statisticians predict both communities will achieve close to parity in size, with Protestants dominant primarily to the east and north of Northern Ireland and Catholics dominant to the west and south. Some forsee an eventual Catholic majority (albeit slight) However as of 2005 most statisticians predict that Protestants will continue to slightly outnumber Catholics in Northern Ireland as a whole for some time to come. Others claim that the rise in immigration into Northern Ireland coupled with rising number of (mainly younger) people alienated from both religion and the political process could bring about a "no overall control" situation.[citation needed]

The religious affiliations, based on census returns, have changed as follows between 1961 and 2002:

Religious Affiliations in Northern Ireland 1961–2001
Religions 1961 1991 2001
Roman Catholic 34.9% 38.4% 40.3%
Presbyterian (Protestant) 29.0% 21.4% 20.7%
Church of Ireland (Protestant) 24.2% 17.7% 15.3%
Other Religions (including other Protestant) 9.3% 11.5% 9.9%
Not Stated 2.0% 7.3% 9.0%
None 0.0% 3.8% 5.0%

[edit] Views on the Union

Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey 2003 [4]
Religion Affiliation 2003
Protestant Unionist 68%
Nationalist 1%
Neither 29%
Catholic Unionist 0%
Nationalist 60%
Neither 36%
Total Unionist 38%
Nationalist 24%
Neither 35%
Results of this survey [1] on the future of Northern Ireland have remained fairly constant over the past several years.
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Results of this survey [1] on the future of Northern Ireland have remained fairly constant over the past several years.

Most Northern Irish Catholics support unification, although opinion polls have shown a minority (approximately 30% according to a study in 2005, although as the above survey from 2003 gives 0% citing "Unionist" affiliation the two concepts are not synonymous), who support remaining part of the United Kingdom, usually while continuing to support nationalist political parties. The proportion of Protestants given in the study who wish to join the Republic is usually smaller. There are also considerable numbers of people who give ambiguous answers to questions about the future constitutional status of Northern Ireland. Some who want unification consider themselves to be republicans as opposed to nationalists, a substantial number of whom are extremists. Some nationalists have sought a favourable arrangement for Ireland within the United Kingdom. Some extremists in the Protestant community (such as paramilitaries and their supporters) usually term themselves as loyalists, as opposed to unionists. As a result, the term "loyalist" has become less popular among unionists in recent decades, especially with unionist politicians. A small minority of people from both religious backgrounds advocate Independence for Northern Ireland (possibly accompanied by some form of realignment of the Border with the Republic). Support for this concept while fluctuating is regarded as insignificant.

While elections in Northern Ireland are often characterised as mini-referenda on the constitutional question, this is too simplistic an analysis. Voters may also perceive voting to be about strengthening the hand of their section of the community within Northern Ireland, or about gaining advantage for their social class.

[edit] Representation

Northern Ireland currently has 18 seats in the United Kingdom House of Commons (10 unionist, 8 nationalist). The Northern Ireland Assembly has 108 Members of the Legislative Assembly (MLAs) (59 unionists, 42 nationalists, 7 others), although this is currently in suspension. It is also represented in the European Parliament with three seats (two unionist, one nationalist), and at local level by 26 district councils. Voting patterns break down as follows:

  • 2005 local elections - Unionists 49.6%, Nationalists 41.1%, Others 10.7%[5]

Sinn Féin, currently the biggest of the nationalist parties in Northern Ireland, has campaigned for a broadening of the franchise of Northern Ireland voters to allow them to vote in elections to choose the President of Ireland. It has also demanded that all Northern Ireland Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) and MPs be allowed speaking rights in the lower house of the parliament of the Republic of Ireland, Dáil Éireann. It was given to understand that the Irish government has accepted this, and plans to introduce legislation in the autumn of 2005 [6]. The Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP) backed the move. However a spokesman for Taoiseach Bertie Ahern later rowed back, stating that it had never been intended that that northern MPs have a right to attend plenary sessions of the Dáil, but that they would be invited to participate in Oireachtas committees dealing with Northern Ireland matters, and only if there was all-party agreement behind it. The unionist parties, along with Fine Gael, Labour and the Progressive Democrats have all declared their opposition to the move, as has much of the Irish media, with articles highly critical of the proposal published in The Irish Times and the Sunday Independent [7] [8].

[edit] Political parties

Political parties in Northern Ireland can be divided into three distinct categories: unionist parties, such as the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP), and other smaller parties such as the Progressive Unionist Party and the United Kingdom Unionist Party; nationalist parties like Sinn Féin and the Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP); and cross-community parties such as the Alliance Party and the Northern Ireland Women's Coalition.

The Ulster Unionist Party were historically a cross-class massenpartei who ran a one-party Northern Ireland Government from its creation until 1972, although since the rise of the DUP in the 1970s, their support has been more middle-class. Until 1972 the UUP's members of the British House of Commons took the Conservative Party whip, although for the past 32 years they have sat as a party in their own right. The UUP's member of the European Parliament belongs to the European Democrats Group.

The DUP are a more complex mixture than the other major parties — combining support from rural evangelicals and from urban, secular, working-class voters. The party is firmly to the right on issues such as abortion, capital punishment, European integration and equal opportunities (although the party seems to be moderating its stance on gay rights since the "Save Ulster from Sodomy" campaign of the 1980s). Conversely, the DUP often support social programmes which benefit their working class or agricultural base, for example, free public transport for the elderly and European Union agricultural subsidies. The DUP have grown in recent years as they are the only major party to oppose the Good Friday Agreement. Their Member of the European Parliament (MEP), Jim Allister, sits as an Independent in the European Parliament, but is perceived to be close to the Independence and Democracy group.

The smaller Progressive Unionist Party and New Ulster Political Research Group are linked with the Ulster Volunteer Force and Ulster Defence Association respectively. The UK Unionist Party is essentially a one-man show led by Robert McCartney MLA for North Down.

Similarly, on the nationalist side of the political spectrum, Sinn Féin has overtaken the traditionally dominant SDLP in recent elections. Sinn Féin is a radical socialist revolutionary party, theoretically committed to espousing an all-Ireland socialist republic, and linked with the Provisional Irish Republican Army (IRA). Sinn Féin is often described as the political wing of the IRA - the exact relationship between Sinn Féin and the IRA is not clear, with many Unionists believing them to be one and the same, referring to them as "Sinn Féin/IRA" - it is however widely accepted that they at one time had an overlapping leadership. Some also dispute the party's claims to be a Socialist party. Traditionally the party of the urban Catholic working-class and a number of republican rural areas, since the IRA ceasefires of the mid-1990s it has expanded its base considerably, and has overtaken the long-dominant SDLP in terms of vote share. Many of their opponents, especially more hardline republicans, contend that its experience of government has blunted the party's revolutionary enthusiasm.

The SDLP are a nominally social democratic party and a full member of the Party of European Socialists and Socialist International. However, as the Northern Ireland party system is not based on socio-economic divisions, it inevitably attracts a wider spectrum of opinion and has a middle-class support base. The SDLP nominally support Irish unification, but reject utterly the use of violence as a means to that end. The SDLP has lost considerable support in the past decade, with the retirement of key figures such as former leader John Hume and deputy leader Seamus Mallon and the IRA's cessation of violence. The party has been torn between members who wish to follow a post-nationalist agenda focusing primarily on "bread and butter issues" (taxation, employment, education, health, etc) and those who wish to follow a more traditionalist nationalist campaign to challenge Sinn Féin. In March 2005, the party launched a major policy programme on working to a united Ireland, suggesting that it has now opted to focus on traditional issues of identity (Irish or British, unionist or nationalist) than on economic or social issues. Ironically some commentators maintain that with the rise of Sinn Féin the SDLP's remaining support comes mainly from "Unionist Catholics"

Among the cross-community parties, the Alliance Party draws its support mainly from middle-class professionals in the suburbs of Belfast. It professes to be the only significant party which does not base its political stance around the constitutional question. The party has strong links with the Liberal Democrats in Britain and is a member of the European Liberal Democrat and Reform Party and Liberal International.

Other parties who contest elections in Northern Ireland include the Green Party, the Workers Party and the Northern Ireland branch of the Conservative Party. The feminist Northern Ireland Women's Coalition briefly held seats in the Northern Ireland Assembly, but have now lost both those and their only local Councillor and seem to be in jeopardy. Ulster Third Way is a small grouping advocating independence for Northern Ireland.

Fianna Fáil, the dominant party in the Republic, has recently opened a cumann (branch) in Derry, and begun recruiting at Queens University Belfast. The leadership as of 2005 has decided not to take part in electoral politics in Northern Ireland. Some, within both Fianna Fáil and the SDLP (including former SDLP European Elections candidate Martin Morgan) have advocated an alliance, or even a merger, between both parties. However many in both parties are hostile to the idea, with some in the SDLP pointing out to the left-wing links between the party and the Irish Labour Party. Others in the SDLP are also closer to the Republic's second biggest party, Fine Gael and oppose a merger with that party's rival, Fianna Fáil.

Some commentators believe there are indications that the religious and ethnic basis of the party system may start to disintegrate. For example, in the 1998–2003 Assembly, there was a Catholic Member of the Legislative Assembly sitting for the Ulster Unionist Party. The SDLP have had a number of Protestant representatives in the past. A Protestant SDLP councillor recently defected to Sinn Féin. Up to now, these have been one-off events, which have occurred periodically throughout Northern Ireland's history without setting a trend — cf Sir Denis Henry in the early part of the 20th century. In any event, social class is an important part of competition within the main ethnic political blocs, and class-based party structures in other established democracies have weakened since the end of the Cold War. Since the beginning of the peace process, the non-ethnic parties have declined, while the more radical Sinn Féin and DUP have prospered.

Some observers counter that, in the long-term, the constitutional question may become less relevant due to the increasing role of the European Union, and therefore a less sectarian political system may develop although there has been little so far to bear this out.

[edit] National identity

In general, Protestants in Northern Ireland see themselves as being British, while Catholics regard themselves as being Irish.

Four polls taken between 1989 and 1994 revealed that when asked to state their national identity, over 79% of Northern Ireland Protestants replied "British" or "Ulster" with 3% or less replying "Irish", while over 60% of Northern Ireland Catholics replied "Irish" with 13% or less replying "British" or "Ulster".[1] A survey in 1999 showed that 72% of Northern Ireland Protestants considered themselves "British" and 2% "Irish", with 68% of Northern Ireland Catholics considering themselves "Irish" and 9% "British".[2] The survey also revealed that 78% of Protestants and 48% of all respondents felt "Strongly British", while 77% of Catholics and 35% of all respondents felt "Strongly Irish". 51% of Protestants and 33% of all respondents felt "Not at all Irish", while 62% of Catholics and 28% of all respondents felt "Not at all British".[3][4] A 2006 report from the Institute of Governance stated that "Three-quarters of Northern Ireland’s Protestants regard themselves as British, but only 12 per cent of Northern Ireland’s Catholics do so. Conversely, a majority of Catholics (65%) regard themselves as Irish, whilst very few Protestants (5%) do likewise" and that "In Northern Ireland, very few respondents identify themselves as both British and Irish." [5]

Discussion of national identity may be complicated by the fact that many in Northern Ireland are not willing to accept national identities of others. A 1997 publication by Democratic Dialogue financed by the Central Community Relations Unit of the Northern Ireland Office stated that "It is clear that many in Northern Ireland are willing to tolerate the Other's cultural identity only within the confines of their own core ideology...most nationalists have extreme difficulty in accepting unionists' Britishness or, even if they do, the idea that unionists do not constitute an Irish ethnic minority which can ultimately be accommodated within the Irish nation...." Discussion may be hindered by the lack of a definitions which command cross-community support. For example, with regard to of "Irishness", the 1997 publication stated that "Irishness is a highly contested identity, subject to fundamentally different nationalist and unionist perceptions which profoundly affect notions of allegiance and group membership.".[6]

[edit] See also

[edit] References

  1. ^ Breen, R., Devine, P. and Dowds, L. (editors), 1996. "Social Attitudes in Northern Ireland: The Fifth Report" ISBN 0-86281-593-2. Chapter 2 retrieved from http://cain.ulst.ac.uk/othelem/research/nisas/rep5c2.htm on August 24, 2006.
  2. ^ Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey, 1999. Module:Community Relations. Variable:NINATID.
  3. ^ Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey, 1999. Module:Community Relations. Variable:BRITISH.
  4. ^ Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey, 1999. Module:Community Relations. Variable:IRISH.
  5. ^ Institute of Governance, 2006. "National identities in the UK: do they matter?" Briefing No. 16, January 2006. Retrieved from http://www.institute-of-governance.org/forum/Leverhulme/briefing_pdfs/IoG_Briefing_16.pdf on August 24, 2006.
  6. ^ Report by Democratic Dialogue
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