Decision analysis
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Decision analysis (DA) is the discipline comprising the philosophy, theory, methodology, and professional practice necessary to address important decisions in a formal manner. Decision analysis includes many procedures, methods, and tools for identifying, clearly representing, and formally assessing the important aspects of a decision situation, for computing the recommended course of action by applying the maximum expected utility action axiom to a well-formed representation of the decision, and for translating the formal representation of a decision and its corresponding recommendation into insight for the decision-maker and other decision participants.
The term decision analysis was coined in 1964 by Ronald A. Howard, who since then, as a professor at Stanford University, has been instrumental in developing much of the practice and professional application of DA.
Graphical representation of decision analysis problems commonly use influence diagrams and decision trees.
Decision analytic methods are used in a wide variety of fields, including business (planning, marketing, and negotiation), environmental remediation, health care research and management, energy exploration, litigation and dispute resolution, etc.
[edit] Bibliography
- Clemen, Robert, Making Hard Decisions: An Introduction to Decision Analysis, 2nd edition (1996), Belmont CA: Duxbury Press, 1996.
- Goodwin, P., and G. Wright, Decision Analysis for Management Judgment, 3rd edition (2004). Wiley, Chichester. ISBN 0-470-86108-8
- Hammond, J.S. and Keeney, R.L. and Raiffa, H., Smart Choices: A Practical Guide to Making Better Decisions (1999). Harvard Business School Press
- Holtzman, Samuel, Intelligent Decision Systems (1989), Addison-Wesley.
- Howard, R.A., and J.E. Matheson (editors), Readings on the Principles and Applications of Decision Analysis, 2 volumes (1984), Menlo Park CA: Strategic Decisions Group.
- Keeney, R.L.,Value-focused thinking -- A Path to Creative Decisionmaking (1992). Harvard University Press. ISBN 0-674-93197-1
- Matheson, David, and Matheson, Jim, The Smart Organization: Creating Value through Strategic R&D (1998). Harvard Business School Press. ISBN 0-87584-765-X
- Raiffa, Howard, Decision Analysis: Introductory Readings on Choices Under Uncertainty (1997). McGraw Hill. ISBN 0-07-052579-X
- Skinner, David, Introduction to Decision Analysis, 2nd Edition (1999). Probabilistic. ISBN 0-9647938-3-0
- Smith, J.Q., Decision Analysis: A Bayesian Approach (1988), Chapman and Hall. ISBN 0-412-27520-1
- Winkler, Robert L, Introduction to Bayesian Inference and Decision, 2nd Edition (2003). Probabilistic. ISBN 0-9647938-4-9
[edit] See also
- Choice
- Decision analysis cycle
- Decision model
- Decision theory
- Decision support
- Influence diagram
- Maximum expected utility
- Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA)
[edit] External Links
- Decision Analysis in Health Care Online course from George Mason University providing free lectures and tools for decision analysis modeling in health care settings.
