Conservative Party (UK) leadership election, 2005

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The 2005 Conservative leadership election was announced by party leader Michael Howard on May 6, 2005, when he announced that he would be stepping down as leader in the near future. However, he stated that he would not depart until a review of the rules for the leadership election had been conducted, given the high level of dissatisfaction with the current system. Ultimately, no changes were made and the election proceeded with the existing rules, which were introduced in 1998.

The contest formally began on 7 October 2005, when the Chairman of the 1922 committee, Sir Michael Spicer, received a letter of resignation from Michael Howard. Nominations for candidates opened immediately, and closed on 13 October.

The first round of voting amongst Conservative Members of Parliament took place on 18 October and Kenneth Clarke was eliminated (38 votes) leaving David Davis (62 votes), David Cameron (56 votes) and Liam Fox (42 votes) to go through to the second ballot on October 20. In the second ballot, Liam Fox was eliminated (51 votes), leaving David Cameron (90 votes) and David Davis (57 votes) to go through to a postal ballot. The ballot, whose result was declared on December 6, saw David Cameron win a large majority on a 77% turnout. [1].

The end result was;

  • David Cameron 134,446 [67.61%]
  • David Davis 64,398 [32.39%]

Total number of valid ballots - 198,844

Contents

[edit] Results

David Davis came top in the first ballot of MPs
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David Davis came top in the first ballot of MPs

The first ballot of MPs was held on 18 October. The results were announced, ten minutes later than expected, at 5:30 p.m. by Sir Michael Spicer, the Chairman of the 1922 Committee.

First Ballot: 18 October 2005
Candidate Votes %
David Davis 62 31.3
David Cameron 56 28.3
Liam Fox 42 21.1
Kenneth Clarke 38 19.2
Turnout 198 100%
Kenneth Clarke eliminated

There were no abstentions, with all 198 Conservative members voting. Cameron, Davis and Fox went through to the second ballot held on October 20. The results were announced by the Chairman of the 1922 Committee at 5:30 p.m..

Second Ballot: 20 October 2005
Candidate Votes %
David Cameron 90 45.5
David Davis 57 28.8
Liam Fox 51 25.7
Turnout 198 100%
Liam Fox eliminated
David Cameron was elected Leader of the Conservative Party
Enlarge
David Cameron was elected Leader of the Conservative Party

There were no abstentions, with all 198 Conservative members voting. Cameron and Davis went through to the runoff vote of the Conservative Party's 300,000 members. The votes were counted on December 5 and the winner, David Cameron, was announced shortly after 15:00 on December 6.

Members' Vote
Candidate Votes %
David Cameron 134,446 67.6%
David Davis 64,398 32.4%
Turnout 198,844 77%
David Cameron elected

[edit] Other possible candidates

The following Conservatives previously announced they were standing but subsequently withdrew from the contest:

  • Alan Duncan - announced early but withdrew after failing to find substantial support.
  • Sir Malcolm Rifkind - withdrew after the conference speeches, citing limited support.

The following prominent Conservatives formally ruled themselves out of the running:

Edward Leigh and John Redwood were both cited by prominent media organisations as potential candidates, but the deadline for nominations passed without a submission from either individual.

[edit] The rules of the contest

Much speculation surrounded the review of the rules, as it is widely estimated that the system eventually adopted could prove a help or hindrance to particular candidates with strong support in certain areas of the party. However, on September 27th, 2005, the proposal to change the rules was rejected. [2]

[edit] The current rules

Under the rules adopted in 1998, under which both Iain Duncan Smith and Michael Howard were elected, a leadership contest can be initiated either by the incumbent leader resigning or by the Parliamentary Party passing a vote of no confidence in the present leader. The latter is called if 15% of the Parliamentary Party write to the Chairman of the 1922 Committee. If a vote of no confidence is passed, a leadership election is called and the incumbent is barred from standing in it.

The returning officer is the Chairman of the 1922 Committee. Candidates must be nominated by any two MPs taking the Conservative whip. If only one candidate stands (as happened in the 2003 leadership election) then they are elected nem con (uncontested).

If two candidates stand, then the election immediately proceeds to a ballot of all members of the party. If more than two candidates stand, then MPs first hold a series of ballots to reduce the number to two. On each round, the candidate with the fewest votes is eliminated. (If two or more candidates tie for last place, as happened in the 2001 contest, then the ballot is repeated, and if the tie remains, all bottom-placed candidates are eliminated.) Candidates may also withdraw between rounds (this also happened in the 2001 contest).

The series of ballots by MPs continues until there are only two candidates remaining. At this point the all-member ballot begins; this lasts for some weeks. To be eligible to vote, an individual has to have been a paid-up member of the party for at least three months. The candidate who tops the poll is declared leader.

[edit] Criticisms of the current rules

Many criticisms have been made of the rules, in light of some problems encountered in previous elections. Amongst the concerns raised are:

[edit] Technical
  • The provision for resolving a tie was originally lacking and hastily devised during the 2001 election.
  • The tie-breaking mechanism is arguably clumsy.
  • In the contests in both 1997 (although taking place under previous rules) and 2001, the position of Chairman of the 1922 Committee was vacant for some weeks owing to the previous holder either retiring or being defeated in the recent general election. Many felt that this prolonged the contests unnecessarily and have called for the Returning Officer to be a party office bearer that is unlikely to be vacant in the aftermath of a general election.
  • Errors in the party's membership lists can lead to individual members being disenfranchised.

[edit] Structural

Many have criticised the system as having being devised to try to answer those who believed that a leader should have the backing of the bulk of MPs, to answer demands for ordinary party members to have a say, and to allow for the removal of a failing leader. It is possible for a candidate to reach the final two with the support of barely a third of MPs in the final ballot (or even less if the rival candidate has overwhelming support in the Parliamentary Party) and then be elected leader by the party members. Conversely, they are then vulnerable to being removed as leader by the MPs.

Some have argued that party members are unrepresentative of the electorate at large and are prone to elect a leader reflecting their views rather than those of the country at large.

[edit] Proposed new rules

In late May 2005 a proposed new system was formally circulated by the party [3]. The rules were as follows:

  • If one candidate was proposed by more than half the MPs they would be automatically declared elected.
  • A candidate must have the support of at least 10% of the Parliamentary Party (20 MPs) to stand.
  • The candidates would go forward to the National Convention, made up of senior figures in the voluntary wing of the party. Here the candidates would be ranked in order of popularity.
  • MPs would vote on the list through a series of eliminative ballots and select the leader.
  • The candidate who receives the most votes in the National Convention would be immune from elimination and would be guaranteed a place in the final round.
  • A campaign spending limit of £25,000 would be imposed. These funds would be supplied by the party, but any money raised by individual candidates will be deducted from this fund.

The proposed new rules would have given MPs the final say on the leader and replaced the all member ballot with a vote at the National Convention of senior party figures. Both this and the caps on spending limits were widely believed to be most likely to harm the chances of David Davis.

The proposed changes led to disputes [4] and were rejected on 27th September 2005. [5]

[edit] Timeline of events

  • May 6, 2005 - In the aftermath of the 2005 general election Michael Howard announces that there will be a review of the rules for electing a leader and that once this review is complete he will stand down. Shadow Chancellor Oliver Letwin immediately confirms he will not be standing.
  • May 20, 2005 - George Osborne rules himself out of the leadership contest. [7]
  • May 21, 2005 - A survey of local party chairmen in Conservative held seats finds that the majority of respondents are happy for MPs to select the leader. [8]
  • May 22, 2005 - David Davis is reported to be undecided about whether to stand, stating that he always made his mind up about "these things at the last possible minute". [10]
  • May 23, 2005 - Andrew Lansley calls for the party to radically reform itself, calling for the description "Reform Conservatives" to be used. He states he is undecided about whether or not to stand for the leadership. [11]
  • May 24, 2005 - Former leader Iain Duncan Smith cautions against proposals to remove grassroots members' say in the selection of the leader. [12]
  • May 25, 2005 - A consultation document on party reforms is formally circulated, including proposals to change the way the leader is elected, giving the final say to MPs and withdrawing the all-party member ballot. [13]
  • May 27, 2005 - Kenneth Clarke is reported to be contemplating a leadership bid. Many commentators believe that Clarke's position on the European Union will hinder a bid, as on previous occasions. [14]
  • May 29, 2005 - A referendum in France rejects the EU Constitution. Many commentators believe that this makes it likely that the constitution will no longer be an issue in UK politics that this removes a major obstacle to a Clarke leadership.
  • June 1, 2005 - A referendum in the Netherlands also rejects the Constitution, reinforcing mounting speculation that the Constitution will be abandoned and that this in turn makes Kenneth Clarke a more viable contender.
  • June 2, 2005 - Former leader Iain Duncan Smith calls for the next leader to be from "the mainstream of Eurosceptic opinion" in what is seen as a dismissal of Kenneth Clarke. [15]
  • June 2, 2005 - David Willets calls for the party to place a greater focus on social justice and a stronger society. [16]
  • June 5, 2005 - In a series of articles and interviews David Davis sets out his vision of the Conservative Party, emphasising the need to maintain its traditional values. [17]
  • June 5, 2005 - Kenneth Clarke declares that he believes the Constitution "plainly is no more". [18]
  • June 8, 2005 - Sir Malcolm Rifkind states that it is "quite likely" he will stand for the leadership. [19]
  • June 10, 2005 - Alan Duncan becomes the first candidate to confirm his desire to seek the leadership. [21]
  • June 13, 2005 - Tim Yeo states in an interview that he feels there are "too many" candidates for the leadership and calls for the "plethora of would-be leaders" from the party's liberal wing to unite around a single candidate. [22]
  • June 15, 2005 - At a meeting of the 1922 Backbench Committee Conservative MPs holds an indicative vote on several proposed options for electing the leader. A system where MPs select the leader with a formal consultation of members is the preferred option. [24]
  • June 16, 2005 - Theresa May calls for the party the select high calibre candidates for their 100 top target seats, including 50 women. [25]
  • June 16, 2005 - In an interview David Cameron "hints" at a leadership bid. [26]
  • June 18, 2005 - Ian Taylor, widely seen as a key ally of Kenneth Clarke, indicates that David Davis could be the person to unify all wings of the party. Another Clarke ally, David Curry, however suggests that Clarke is the best qualified candidate. [28]
  • June 19, 2005 - Kenneth Clarke declares that he is "keen" to run for the leadership, though notes that there will be some months in which to make a final decision. [29]
  • June 29, 2005 - David Cameron makes a speech entitled "We're all in it together" in which he sets out his views on the future of the party and calls for families and married couples to receive greater support from the government. [30]
  • July 1, 2005 - Kenneth Clarke declares that he has sufficient support in the parliamentary party to be nominated for the leadership and that he will be a candidate "unless it becomes clear by the autumn that I don't have a serious prospect". [32]
  • July 3, 2005 - Oliver Letwin declares his support for David Cameron, increasing the latter's chances of being the main challenger from the left of the party. [33]
  • July 5, 2005 - Michael Ancram warns that removing ordinary members' say in electing a leader will not make the party more attractive to voters. [34]
  • July 6, 2005 - Conservative MPs at a meeting of the 1922 Backbench Committee agree a system whereby a candidate with the support of 5% of MPs (currently 10 MPs) could stand and with a consultative poll of constituency party chairmen, who would each put forward two names, but with MPs making the final decisions. [35]
  • July 18, 2005 - Alan Duncan rules himself out of the leadership race in an article in The Guardian. [36]
  • July 18, 2005 - As Duncan withdraws, Theresa May states, "I will be thinking about whether to stand." [37]
  • June 19, 2005 - A survey of primarily Conservative Party members and supporters reveals that there is strong support for MPs making the final decision but also strong support for ordinary party members having a formal say in the process. The same survey finds David Davis to be the most popular choice amongst respondents. [38]
  • July 21, 2005 - MPs finish voting on proposals to change the rules and back a system that gives them the final say. Objections to removing the role of grassroots members are made by the Campaign for Conservative Democracy and by prominent Conservative MPs including Theresa May, Andrew Lansley, Iain Duncan Smith, Michael Ancram and David Willets. [39]
  • September 5, 2005 - Liam Fox declares his intention to stand as leader of the Conservative party [42]
  • September 29, 2005 - David Davis and David Cameron both officially launch their election campaigns. [44]
  • October 3, 2005 - Andrew Lansley rules himself out of the contest, citing a lack of support. [45]
  • October 5, 2005 - Deputy Leader Michael Ancram rules himself out of the contest, citing a lack of support. He also announces he will return to the backbenches when the new leader is elected. [46]
  • October 12 2005 - It is reported that the Cornerstone Group of right-wing Conservative MPs will not field a candidate of their own, otherwise expected to be Edward Leigh, but will instead support Liam Fox. [49]
  • October 18, 2005 - Kenneth Clarke is eliminated in the first ballot of MPs.
  • October 20, 2005 - Liam Fox is eliminated in the second ballot of MPs.

[edit] Election Timetable

[edit] Party Conference

At the 2005 Conservative Party conference, each of the five announced candidates at the time was allowed a 20 minute speech. This was seen by many as the start of the leadership campaign by each of the candidates and their speeches were closely analysed by party members and the media. Many felt that front-runner (at the time of his speech) David Davis had performed rather poorly, while the speeches of Kenneth Clarke, Liam Fox, Sir Malcom Rifkind and David Cameron were much better. This led to a rapid change in the odds of the five candidates on the betting markets - on the morning of the 6th October, David Davis was the clear leader and David Cameron third, but by the evening of the same day the two had swapped places. By the end of the conference, David Cameron had become the front runner, with Ken Clarke and David Davis closely behind.

The conference was also seen as similar to the Conservative's 1963 conference, where there was also a race to become leader.

[edit] Polling

The Sunday Times and YouGov polled 746 members of the Conservative Party just after the conference. The results can be found here. The poll showed support slipping away from David Davis and Ken Clarke and moving to Liam Fox and David Cameron instead.

The Daily Telegraph and YouGov polled 665 members of the Conservative Party just after the first ballot, where Clarke was eliminated leaving only three contestants. The poll showed that 59 percent backed David Cameron, against 18 percent for Liam Fox and 15 per cent for Mr Davis. This poll showed support for Mr Cameron being strong amongst the grassroots of the party on the eve of the final (membership) ballot.

In a YouGov poll published on November 12th, more than two-thirds of party members look set to vote for the younger candidate as party leader. Around 68 per cent of voters who had already returned their ballot papers had opted for Mr Cameron, while 66 per cent of those still to vote said they were likely to choose him over the then-Shadow Home Secretary David Davis. 57 per cent of those still to vote said they may change their minds between then and the postal ballot deadline on December 5.

[edit] Hague discloses support

Former Conservative leader William Hague was revealed to be backing David Cameron to become the next party leader when he declared his support in an article written for the News of the World on Sunday 13th November.

[edit] Result

The final decision made by the 253,600 Tory members and announced on 6 December was a victory for David Cameron. 198,844 voted, 134,446 for Cameron, 64,398 for Davis. Mr Cameron said his party now had to change how they looked, felt and behaved. He set out core challenges for his leadership: creating a full-bodied economic policy which went beyond just tax; giving freedom to those on the frontline in public services; national and international security; and ensuring social justice by strengthening the voluntary sector.

[edit] External links

Conservative Party (UK) leadership elections

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