BidIndex
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
BidIndex is a mathematical model developed by GamesBids that when applied to an Olympic Bid, produces a number that can be used to rate a bid relative to past successful bids - and possibly gauge its potential success.
First rolled out to evaluate the 2008 Olympic bid, it was an immediate success as it accurately painted a picture of the final outcome of the bid. While not correctly predicting the eventual winners of 2010 and 2014, BidIndex accurately portrayed the relative strngths of the bid and separated the real contenders from the also-rans.
This complex model is a result of months of research and development by analysts with expertise in statistics, mathematics and the Olympic Bid process. Information for BidIndex is obtained from both public and inside sources.
The primary model looks at the actual Olympic bids voted on by the International Olympic Committee. GamesBids.com BidIndex will also analyze selected bids with its National Olympic Committee (NOC) model. These are qualifying bids conducted by the NOC's (e.g. The United States Olympic Committee's selection for the 2012 bid).
While it is impossible for anyone to know which city will win a bid, BidIndex combines the current geopolitical and technical status of a bid and projects how it might compete based on past voting patterns. Since the IOC does not always pick the best quality bid, BidIndex does not predict the winner or rank the bids. It is designed to measure the competitiveness of each bid on a static scale.
BidIndex was reviewed in the March 2004 edition of Significance Magazine, a publication by the Royal Statistical Society.
