Australian legislative election, 2007

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This article or section contains information about an upcoming or ongoing election.
Content may change dramatically as the election approaches and unfolds.

2007 federal election major party leaders
Labor		Liberal

Kevin Rudd Opposition Leader		John Howard Prime Minister
Parliament	8 years	Parliament	32 years
Leader since	2006	Leader since	1995
Division	Griffith	Division	Bennelong

The next Australian legislative election is expected to take place in late 2007, although it can be held as late as 19 January 2008.

The opposition Australian Labor Party, led by Kevin Rudd,^[1] will be the main challenger to the incumbent Coalition government, currently led by the Prime Minister and Leader of the Liberal Party, John Howard, and his Coalition partner the Deputy Prime Minister and Leader of the National Party, Mark Vaile.

Issues predicted by the Australian media to play the highest importance in the upcoming election campaign include Howard's controversial advocacy of nuclear energy^[2], increased public pressure to implement a global warming policy^[3], Union opposition to the WorkChoices laws, increases in interest rates (three 0.25% increases in 2006)^[4], the corruption in AWB Ltd. and expected changes to the Iraq war policy in light of the 2006 US midterm election results^[5]. Polls since Kevin Rudd took over as leader of the opposition has caused a 5-year low (just before the 2001 election) approval rating for John Howard of 39%.[1]

1 House of Representatives
2 Senate
- 2.1 Senators facing election in 2007
3 Polling
4 Election timetable
5 References
6 External link

[edit] House of Representatives

At the 2004 election the Coalition won 87 seats (Liberal 74, National 12, Country Liberal Party 1), to the Labor Party's 60 seats. Three independents were elected. To gain outright control of the House of Representatives, the ALP will thus require a net gain of 16 seats.

[edit] Redistribution

Due to population shifts, Queensland gained a seat at the expense of New South Wales in a redistribution completed in September 2006 by the Australian Electoral Commission. In New South Wales, the Division of Gwydir in western NSW was abolished. A number of other seats were also substantially changed, including Parkes, Farrer, Calare, Macquarie, Greenway and Hughes. Macquarie was changed from a fairly safe Liberal seat to a marginal Labor seat, by the inclusion of Lithgow and Bathurst, while Parramatta was changed from marginal Labor to marginal Liberal.

In Queensland a new Division of Flynn, named for the founder of the Royal Flying Doctor Service, Rev John Flynn, was created, based on Gladstone and running inland as far as Winton. This seat had a National Party majority of about 7 percent.[2]

The net effect of the proposed redistribution was thus to transfer a National Party seat from NSW (Gwydir) to Queensland (Flynn).

[edit] Marginal seats

On the new boundaries, the following are the Coalition parties' 16 most marginal seats. Assuming a uniform swing, Labor will need to win all these seats to gain government. These seats are commonly called the "key marginals."

Seat	State	Incumbent	Party	Margin (%)
Kingston	South Australia	Kym Richardson	Liberal	0.1
Bonner	Queensland	Ross Vasta	Liberal	0.5
Wakefield	South Australia	David Fawcett	Liberal	0.7
Makin	South Australia	Trish Draper	Liberal	0.9
Parramatta	New South Wales	Julie Owens	Labor	0.9
Braddon	Tasmania	Mark Baker	Liberal	1.1
Hasluck	Western Australia	Stuart Henry	Liberal	1.8
Stirling	Western Australia	Michael Keenan	Liberal	2.0
Wentworth	New South Wales	Malcolm Turnbull	Liberal	2.5
Bass	Tasmania	Michael Ferguson	Liberal	2.6
Moreton	Queensland	Gary Hardgrave	Liberal	2.8
Solomon	Northern Territory	David Tollner	Liberal	2.8
Lindsay	New South Wales	Jackie Kelly	Liberal	2.9
Eden-Monaro	New South Wales	Gary Nairn	Liberal	3.3
Bennelong	New South Wales	John Howard	Liberal	4.0
Dobell	New South Wales	Ken Ticehurst	Liberal	4.8

Labor thus requires a uniform national two-party swing of 4.8% to win the election. Swing is never uniform, but in practice variations of swing among the states usually tend to cancel each other out. While the popular view is that the election will be won or lost in Queensland, it is notable that there are only two Queensland seats on the list of key marginals, as compared with six New South Wales seats and three South Australian seats.

It is notable that there are no Victorian seats on the list. The Liberals got substantial swings towards them in their Victorian marginal seats in 2004, and their weakest seats, McMillan and Corangamite, have margins of 5.0%.

Prime Minister John Howard's seat of Bennelong, which has been held continuously by the Liberals since its creation in 1949, is now a key marginal. This area of Sydney has undergone substantial demographic change, and a redistribution has recently reduced Howard's margin further. Labor would also need to win the seat of Wentworth, which has existed since 1901 and never elected a Labor member.

Labor's most vulnerable seats are Hindmarsh (0.1%), Swan (0.1%), Macquarie (0.5%), Cowan (0.8%) and Bendigo (1.0%). Cowan is considered particularly vulnerable because the popular sitting member, Graham Edwards, is retiring.

[edit] Retiring members

The following members of the House of Representatives will not be contesting the 2007 election:

John Anderson (National, Gwydir, NSW): The redistribution commissioners have recommended the abolition of Gwydir. He was quoted in the Australian on 10 July that he was retiring.
Ian Causley (National, Page, NSW): will be 67 in October 2007. Announced his retirement October 2006.
Ann Corcoran (ALP, Isaacs, Victoria): lost preselection
Trish Draper (Liberal, Makin, South Australia): decision to retire reported July 2006
Graham Edwards (ALP, Cowan, Western Australia): announced his retirement January 2006
Kay Elson (Liberal, Forde, Queensland): retirement reported June 2006
Warren Entsch (Liberal, Leichhardt, Queensland): has announced his retirement
Geoff Prosser (Liberal, Forrest, WA): retirement reported June 2006
Harry Quick (ALP, Franklin, Tasmania): announced retirement August 2005, although has since said he may contest as an independent if his preferred replacement is not preselected
Robert Sercombe (ALP , Maribyrnong, Victoria): lost preselection 2006
Barry Wakelin (Liberal, Grey, SA): retirement reported June 2006
Rod Sawford (ALP, Port Adelaide, SA): retirement reported August 2006
Kim Beazley (ALP, Brand, WA): announced retirement December 13, 2006 after losing leadership of the ALP to Kevin Rudd.

Gavan O'Connor (ALP, Corio, Victoria) also lost preselection in 2006 but is appealing the vote to the National Executive.

[edit] Possibly retiring members

Other members of the House of Representatives who may retire at the 2007 election include:

Bronwyn Bishop (Liberal, Mackellar, NSW): will be 65 in October 2007
Alan Cadman (Liberal, Mitchell, NSW): will be 70 in August 2007
John Forrest (National, Mallee, Vic): will be 58 in 2007. In February 2006 Glenn Milne of The Australian reported that he is expected to retire.
Joanna Gash (Liberal, Gilmore, NSW): will be 63 in July 2007
David Jull (Liberal, Fadden, Queensland): will be 63 in October 2007 (has been an MP for 30 years and is in poor health)
Paul Neville (National, Hinkler, Queensland): will be 67 in March 2007 (but holds a key marginal seat)
Roger Price (ALP, Chifley, NSW): will be 62 in November 2007 (but is Opposition Chief Whip)
Philip Ruddock (Liberal, Berowra, NSW): will be 64 in March 2007 (but is a Cabinet minister)
Alby Schultz (Liberal, Hume, NSW): will be 68 in May 2007
Bruce Scott (National, Maranoa, Qld): will be 64 in October 2007
Alex Somlyay (Liberal, Fairfax, Qld): will be 61 in January 2007
Wilson Tuckey (Liberal, O'Connor, WA): will be 72 in July 2007
Mal Washer (Liberal, Moore, WA): will be 62 in August 2007

[edit] Preselection challenges

A number of members faced pre-selection challenges during 2006. These were:

Australian Labor Party

Ann Corcoran (Isaacs, Victoria): lost preselection to Mark Dreyfus, QC
Michael Danby (Melbourne Ports, Victoria): easily defeated a challenge from Henk van Leeuwen
Alan Griffin (Bruce, Victoria): very narrowly defeated a challenge from Matt Carrick
Harry Jenkins (Scullin, Victoria): very narrowly defeated a challenge from Nathan Murphy
Gavan O'Connor (Corio, Victoria): lost preselection to ACTU Assistant Secretary Richard Marles
Simon Crean (Hotham, Victoria): defeated a challenge from Martin Pakula, who withdrew after the local ballot
Robert Sercombe (Maribyrnong, Victoria): lost preselection to AWU Secretary Bill Shorten

Liberal Party

Petro Georgiou (Kooyong Victoria): defeated a challenge from investment banker Joshua Frydenberg
Stewart McArthur (Corangamite Victoria): defeated a challenge from Rod Nockles
Judi Moylan (Pearce Western Australia): defeated a challenge from Jamie Falls.
Dennis Jensen (Tangney Western Australia): defeated a challenge from Matt Brown, on appeal.

Following the New South Wales and Queensland redistributions, there will be a further round of preselections in both major parties.

[edit] Senate

For the Coalition to lose their majority in the Senate, the opposition parties or Independents would need to win a net two seats from the Coalition. Due to the staggered Senate election the Coalition Senate seats gained in the 2004 election not contested, and additional seats need to be won from the 2001 cohort, where Labor, the Greens and the Democrats won three of the six vacancies in each state. A shift in power in the Senate will therefore require opposition parties to win four seats in two states, and hold three seats in the other states, during the 2007 election. If the Coalition was reduced to a minority by a single seat, a Coaltion government in the House of Representatives would have to pass legislation through making a deal with either Labor, the Greens, the Democrats, Family First or any incoming Independent in order to pass legislation.

Alternatively, if Labor won the House of Representatives, it will be almost certainly be in the minority in the Senate, and will either have to deal with the Coaltion (if they remain in the majority) or would be required to cooperate with all minor parties in order to pass legislation. Since Family First has consistently voted with the Coalition, for Labor control of the Senate they would require two Coalition seats to be captured to bypass Coalition/Family First control. The parties with a track record of negotiating with Labor are the Democrats and the Greens, so a net gain of two seats to these three parties would be considered a significant boost to the Labor party's chance of bypassing the Coaltion in the Senate. Based in the results of the 2004 election, it is clear that Labor, the Greens and the Democrats would require a swing of around 10% to gain two seats from the Coalition. In 2004 the combined votes of the ALP, Greens and Democrats, when expressed in terms of quotas, were as follows:

Tasmania: 3.34
Victoria: 3.27
New South Wales: 3.20
South Australia: 3.12
Western Australia: 2.97
Queensland: 2.74

Thus, for the three main opposition parties to gain a seat in Tasmania, their best prospect of doing so, they need to increase their combined vote by 0.66 of a quota. A quota is 14.3% of the vote, so the increase required is 9.4%. In Victoria this figure is 10.4%, in NSW it is 11.4%, in South Australia 12.6%, in Western Australia 14.7% and in Queensland 18.0%.

The Australian Democrats are expected to lose their remaining Senate representation, since all their four Senators are up for re-election and their performance remains consistently poor in the polls. Leader Lyn Allison struggles with her profile in her home state of Victoria and is unlikely to be re-elected. This provides an added difficulty to Labor in removing Coalition control over the Senate, as they need to prevent the Coalition from capturing the Democrat seats.

The following Senators will not be recontesting the 2007 election:

Paul Calvert (Liberal, Tasmania): announced in April 2006 that he is "most unlikely" to recontest preselection but will serve out his term
Jeannie Ferris (Liberal, South Australia): The Australian retirement reported February 2006.
Rod Kemp (Liberal, Victoria): announced in May 2006 that he would retire in 2007.
Kay Patterson (Liberal, Victoria): has announced she will retire at the 2007 election
Robert Ray (ALP, Victoria) did not renominate.
Andrew Murray (Democrat, Western Australia): announced retirement July 2006.
Natasha Stott Despoja (Democrat, South Australia): announced retirement October 2006.
Mark Bishop (ALP, Western Australia): announced retirement December 2006 [3].

The following Senators are facing re-election in 2007 and may retire:

George Campbell (ALP, NSW): will be 64 in February 2007
Grant Chapman (Liberal, South Australia): will be 56 in April 2007 (relatively young but has been an MP and Senator for 30 years and has never held office, and is likely to face a preselection challenge if he recontests)
Alan Eggleston (Liberal, Western Australia}: will be 66 in December 2007

[edit] Senators facing election in 2007

Senators who have announced their retirement are marked with an asterisk

New South Wales

George Campbell (ALP)
Hon Helen Coonan (Lib)
Hon Sandy Macdonald (Nat)
Kerry Nettle (Green)
Marise Payne (Lib)
Ursula Stephens (ALP)

Victoria

Lyn Allison (Dem)
Mitch Fifield (Lib)
Hon Rod Kemp (Lib)*
Gavin Marshall (ALP)
Hon Dr Kay Patterson (Lib)*
Hon Robert Ray (ALP)*

Queensland

Andrew Bartlett (Dem)
Hon Ron Boswell (Nat)
John Hogg (ALP)
Hon Ian Macdonald (Lib)
Claire Moore (ALP)
Hon Santo Santoro (Lib)

Western Australia

Dr Alan Eggleston (Lib)
David Johnston (Lib)
Ross Lightfoot (Lib)
Andrew Murray (Dem)*
Ruth Webber (ALP)

South Australia

Cory Bernardi (Lib)
Grant Chapman (Lib)
Jeannie Ferris (Lib)*
Linda Kirk (ALP)
Natasha Stott Despoja (Dem)*
Penny Wong (ALP)

Tasmania

Dr Bob Brown (Green)
Carol Brown (ALP)
Hon Paul Calvert (Lib)*
Hon Richard Colbeck (Lib)
Hon Nick Sherry (ALP)
John Watson (Lib)

Australian Capital Territory

Gary Humphries (Lib)
Kate Lundy (ALP)

Northern Territory

Trish Crossin (ALP)
Nigel Scullion (CLP)

[edit] Polling

	Two-Party Preferred
		ALP (*Beazley)		LIB
2004 election result	47.2%		52.8%
8-10 Dec 2006	55%		45%
24-26 Nov 2006	*51%		49%
10-12 Nov 2006	*50%		50%
27-29 Oct 2006	*52%		48%
13-15 Oct 2006	*52%		48%
22-24 Sep 2006	*53%		47%
8-10 Sep 2006	*53%		47%
25-27 Aug 2006	*51%		49%
11-13 Aug 2006	*49%		51%
4-6 Aug 2006	*51%		49%
28-30 Jul 2006	*50%		50%
14-16 Jul 2006	*52%		48%
Source: Newspoll/The Australian

	Preferred Prime Minister
		Rudd (*Beazley)		Howard
8-10 Dec 2006	36%		39%
24-26 Nov 2006	*25%		55%
10-12 Nov 2006	*25%		54%
27-29 Oct 2006	*26%		54%
13-15 Oct 2006	*26%		54%
22-24 Sep 2006	*26%		52%
8-10 Sep 2006	*25%		54%
25-27 Aug 2006	*26%		54%
11-13 Aug 2006	*27%		54%
4-6 Aug 2006	*25%		52%
28-30 Jul 2006	*26%		53%
14-16 Jul 2006	*27%		53%
Source: Newspoll/The Australian

[edit] Election timetable

Given the result of the 2004 election, it is more likely than not that the 2007 election will be a regular election, and not a double dissolution election.

The last date on which the next election can be held is calculated in the following way:

Section 28 of the Constitution says: "Every House of Representatives shall continue for three years from the first sitting of the House."

Section 32 of the Constitution says: "The writs shall be issued within ten days from the expiry of a House of Representatives or from the proclamation of a dissolution thereof."

Section 156 (1) of the Electoral Act says: "the date fixed for the nomination of the candidates shall not be less than 10 days nor more than 27 days after the date of the writ."

Section 157 of the Electoral Act says: "The date fixed for the polling shall not be less than 23 days nor more than 31 days after the date of nomination."

This parliament first met on 16 November 2004. Therefore it expires on 16 November 2007. The writs must therefore be issued by 26 November 2007 (ten days after the expiry). The last date on which nominations can close is therefore 23 December 2007 (27 days after the writs). The last Saturday on which polling can take place therefore is 19 January 2008 (30 day period following the nomination would expire on the 22nd.). However, no Australian Prime Minister has yet called an election to take place in January.